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China-Challenges for Asia and the world

As the world wakes up to the new challenge that we call China, it is time to analyse the challenges that the world especially the countries in Asia will face, the question being how to face the emerging dragon.

China has in recent years startled the world with it's fast growing economy and also the military strength. China in the last few years has rolled out magnificent    military weapons including stealth aircrafts, naval ships and other weapon systems. Backed by robust economy, China has attained to flex her muscles around the world.

China has embarked on an era of cultivating friendly ties with nations around the world including countries of Asia. This has given jitters to India especially the Chinese strategy of the string of pearls strategy to encircle India. The strategic community is raking their brains to find a solution and effectively face cap the Chinese expansion. Now the question that we need to ask is whether we are over reacting or should we be cautious?

It is unquestionable that China is on the roll. It has enough financial power to embark on diplomacy from Africa to around the world. It is also inducting high value weapon systems to back their financial powers. Indeed the world is a very worried lot. But the greatest problem that China will face in the near future is it's growing aggressiveness against it's neighbors. China has boundary problems with just about all the countries in the Asia including influential powers like, Japan, India, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam to name a few. Last few years has seen China flexing it's muscles   by claiming many territories especially  in South China sea. This has led them to deploy naval assets in a way to intimidate the countries. But in the long run, this will have a negative effect for China. Japan with whom China has a long pending dispute on many islands is a case in point. What ought to be remembered is that Japan even though as per the terms of the surrender of the WW-2 is not allowed to have proper navy. But their self defense  force has large and powerful naval assets that can counter China. It is only a matter of time before Japan sets up it's own navy. It is internationally  acknowledged fact that it will only take Japan some years after the decision is made to field a powerful armed forces. This coupled with strong American backing means China will have their hands full.

China also has long standing issues with India. India is worried because of rapid Chinese incursion into the Indian Ocean that has traditionally been an Indian sphere of influence. There is talk in India about the Chinese navy deploying a new Aircraft Carrier. What is left unsaid is that India will by 2020 have three carrier task forces for themselves that will make her having one of the most powerful navy in the Asia Pacific. It is generally acknowledged that India is the only country that is capable of facing China in Asia. Also India is cultivating closer relationship with Japan blessed by America that will in many ways challenge China. Another factor is that America is in the process of redeploying a majority of their naval forces in Asia thus effectively being a force in Asia. It has to be remembered that even if America as a power is declining, it will be the most powerful country for the first half of this decade.

China does not have tat much good allies to fall back on. Pakistan, China's all weather friend is now in deep trouble with growing insurgency and also a weak and neglected economy on the verge of collapse. Pakistan cannot give any support to China at the time of it's need. Also North Korea with antique weapon platforms cannot help China in any way.

It is now time for India to cultivate good relationship with it's neighbors and curtail the Chinese influence in the region. India need to expand and broaden it's ties with Japan and USA. They at the same time should not ignore Russia as she is the main balancing force in the world and a major source of weapons for China. It is time for India to take steps that will secure our future in the world that is shocked by the emergence of the dragon.

(A very long a difficult subject, I will try to deal with the same with much more detail in my next blog. Keep logged on to my blog in the future) 

Comments

jai kallikkal said…
Excellent..Manoj. Well written. Taming the dragon could be a piped dream, it would rather be a worthwhile exercise to continue with diplomatic exercises to understand and decode the inner nuances of Chinese strategy and action.
jai kallikkal said…
Excellent..Manoj. Well written. Taming the dragon could be a piped dream, it would rather be a worthwhile exercise to continue with diplomatic exercises to understand and decode the inner nuances of Chinese strategy and action.

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