It is very difficult to deal with such a complected subject in small blog. Over the recent years, China has made great strides. Backed by decades of strong economic growth, China aspires to be a world power. But one seriously doubt if China has set their game right. as the old saying goes, with great power comes great responsibility. But this wisdom seems to allude the Chinese policy makers. China has just about has problems with all it's neighbors, be it with Japan, or Philippines, Vietnam or India, China has territorial claims and disputes with each and one of these countries. The recent Chinese actions of proactive power projection makes matters worse.
China's greatest test will be dealing with the other two predominant powers, Japan and India.Japan has had a long history of dispute and strained relations with China. In recent months, that discord has been simmering on the dispute over certain Islands that China claims as it's own. Japan has after the second world war followed a passive defense policy with lightly armed forces. It had over the last few decades been relying heavily for it's defense and security on the Americans and over the years Americans had proved to be their most trustworthy ally and vice-verse. But the gradual decline of the American supremacy as an International power and the growing Chinese assertiveness, Japan is now slowly moving away from their passive policy and rearm themselves in a big way. This is also mainly due to the Chinese policies that leaves the growing distrust of China and her expressionistic intentions. if and when Japan decides to rearm itself, they will be able to do the same in the shortest possible time. Japan is also constantly building ties with the other power brokers in Asia, namely India and other "ASEAN"countries.
The second challenge for China will be India. The recent incursion of the Chinese army to the Ladakh sector has left a sour taste for India and the growing feeling that China will someday try to contain and attack India. The thoughts and memory of the 1962 debacle against China is imprinted deep in the Indian psyche. Time and again India has vowed to never repeat the mistakes of the 1962. Coupled with a strong and a robust economy with is growth at a high rate, India is also seeing massive inductions of high end defense platforms into it's armed forces and also increasing assertiveness in dealing with it's neighbors. India is cautious of the Chinese string of pearls strategy that it sees as a ploy to encircle India. To counter the same, India is growing important relations with the neighbors of China. While much is written about the growing Chinese military especially it's navy, what is left unnoticed is that India is also in the process of rapid modernization of it's armed forces including the navy which will see deployment of three carrier task groups by the year 2025. But what sets India apart from China is India's image of a soft power that does not have much disputes with countries but is largely seen as the counter weight to China. India is also building closer relations with America and Japan which will in years to come see a sort of ganging up against China unless the Chinese changes their policies.
The Americans are also in the game with their strategic redeployment of it's forces to the Asia Pacific region in a way to counter China. America will be the third arbitrator of an Asian security and strategic re balancing. Countries like Vietnam, Philippines will in time also will closely ally with the Americans.
The great mystery of the 21'st Century in Asia is how to deal with the dragon. But one thing that all should remember including China is that it is no one's interest to have a hostile environment in Asia. What is required is a quantitative mechanism that will see easy resolution of disputes and containing of differences by preventing simmering of the same to the verge of hostilities. The time is now. If this opportunity is missed, then time will never forgive us for our mistakes.
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