United States-India-Japan- China, The emerging power matrix in Asia

When you talk about a security in Asia, the first name that one consider is the United States. Th Americans has been the predominant power in Asia.  The corner stone of the American power projection is it's network of time tested allies and the security alliance with them. Such alliance has ensured peace in Asia for many decades. But it is this alliance that is now challenged by the rise of China. The Chinese it seems are getting ready to take on the United States and challenge their position of dominance in Asia. But such policies is met by the United States by re positioning major defence assets to Asia and the Pacific. America also has many bases in Asia and Indian ocean by which they can project power. Their relationship with India is also growing with years of careful nurture that ensures the containment of China should a circumstance arise. 

When we talk about the 21'st century, the first thing that comes to our mind is China. China which liberalized it's economy in the 1970's has seen double digit growth and is now emerging as a power house in the world. India is also fast catching up. Japan which had imposed a self exile has a very capable armed forces, sustained economy and all the making of an emerging super power. With the emergence of China and it's aggressive foreign policies, it is only a matter of time there is change in the policies of Japan and it starts playing an increasingly vital role in the Asian security architecture. So let us make a review of what the future holds for us: 

The rise of China has been the greatest story of the 21'st century. China has made great strides in recent times, be it economically, politically or militarily. With an expanding economy, China has been able to reshape their foreign policy. Now China is the largest investor in Africa. The Chinese has also stunned the world with advances in weapon technology. With the introduction of cutting edge weapon systems including 5'th gen aircraft, nuclear subs, high-tech  ships and other weapon systems, China has slowly been able to wean themselves away from foreign weapon systems and rely on indigenous weapon systems. This gives them greater independence and flexibility. China if they play their cards right is set to emerge as one of the three most powerful countries in the world.

But China has it's own problems.  It is besieged by territorial disputes with almost all the countries around itself ranging from Japan to Vietnam to India. This brings a great bearing to their security architecture.  China will need a large armed forces to cover all the territories. Increasingly due to the Chinese aggressive policies, China is seen by many to be both unreliable and untrustworthy. China has long abandoned the policy of projecting itself as a soft power and has instead perusing a policy of aggressive foreign relations especially with it's territorial disputes. The only two allies that China can really count on is Pakistan and North Korea. But both these countries are in no position to be of any assistance to China both are besieged by their own problems. If Pakistan faces increasing chances of civil war, North Korea faces acute poverty and economic stagnation that ensures that it plays a minimal role in any international conflict and also curtails its ability for power projection.

There is an increasing talk of a joint alliance between China-Russia-Iran to counter balance the United States. But such alliance can sustain itself is yet to be seen. Russia by itself has several border disputes with China and does not trust her completely. It is yet to be seen if Russia will isolate itself internationally by helping China. Iran on itself is developing at a fast pace. But their ability to project power outside their sphere of influence is still limited. 

Now we come to Japan. Japan maintains a highly capable military with advanced weaponry. But Japan has restrained itself from interfering in any international  conflict. There has been a serious rethink on how they interpret their pacifist constitution  In the coming years, Japan will start to play an increasing role in Asian security architecture. But it will not be by itself but in alliance with the United States. The new interpretation does not envisage active military rebuilding, greater assistance to the United States in the event of a conflict in Asia at a point where the Japanese security is threatened. This means that the United States will remain as the paramount power in Asia for the foreseeable future. Japan enjoys close alliance with the United States which mandates the Americans to come to assistance and also fight with the Japanese in the event of a conflict, be it the island dispute between China and Japan or for that matter any other conflict. 

Now we come to India. India liberalized her economy in the early 1990's that paved way for consistent growth in the last two decades. With the increasing economic growth, India has also been building it's defence. Now India has a very capable military that is capable of power projection throughout Asia. India enjoys friendly relations with the almost all the major Asian countries barring Pakistan and China with which it has historical animosity. India is generally seen as a soft power that is both trust worthy and reliable. India also enjoys good relations with the United States and it's military expansion is not seen as a threat but as a counter balance and also as a power of stability by the greater Asian countries. Indian navy is now one of the most powerful in the Indian Ocean rim and has the ability for effective power projection. It also has been undertaking regular exercises with the United States and now with Japan that ensures greater inter- operability. 

The emerging Asian matrix will see the United States - Japan and India with close military allies on one side and China on the other. But China will face many curtails for power projection. On one side, they will need to confront with a very capable United States- Japanese military and on the other other they will face India. On the event of  a war, Indian navy can without much difficulty blockade access to the south china sea by which the entire ship lanes will be blocked and the Chinese life line will be cut.  In many ways, China sits between two powerful neighbors that can seriously hamper their ability to project power. Coupled with increasing American presence, China will have it's hands full. I personally feel it has been a mistake of the part of the Chinese to compete with the USA. It is further a mistake on the part of the Chinese to make so many enemies around itself. No country by itself can take on so many countries. If there is an attack on one country, the entire world will unify as was seen on the Iraqi attack on Kuwait. China on itself will not able deal with such a threat. It cannot count on strong allies to help it through such a conflict. 

The new Asian security matrix will be defined by how China promotes itself. If they does not play it's cards correctly,   there is sure to see  a military alliance emerging that will see India, Japan, Vietnam , Australia and the United States with other countries allaying against China. Such a threat if emerges will define Asia. But it is for the Asian countries to work together and promote peace and prosperity and ensure that Asia does not become another point of an emerging cold war for the sake of the future generations.