Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Source- The Diplomat Author- S.K Chatterji The Islamic Caliphate is no longer virtual reality; it’s a tangible experience. Islamic State (also known as ISIS and ISIL) has the basic essentials that make it a serious threat. It has territory, it has the military capability to hold on to its territory, and it has a system of governance, however demented it may be. Of course, its barely contested march has now been stalled by air strikes, the recapture of the Baiji refinery has been hailed by Iraqis as a changing of the tide, and the Peshmerga are gradually coming into their own at Kobani. Still, with the exception of Baiji, there has as yet there has been no substantial reversal of the gains that the Islamic state has made. The caliphate’s leadership is ambitious, ruthless and singularly focused on spreading its distorted vision of political Islam. Al-Qaeda, for decades the beacon for Islamists, has taken a different approach to jihad, with a strategy that has involved wid

Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author-  www.kremlin.ru . ) Source- Eurasia Review Author- Dr. Subash Kapila Pakistan and Russia signed a ‘Defence and Military Cooperation Agreement’ on November 20 in Rawalpindi during the significantly first-ever visit of a Russian Defence Minister to Pakistan in the changing security environment. Coming as it does virtually on the eve of the visit of the Russian President to India, what does one in India read in the latest political signalling by Russia in South Asia? Was India kept in the loop by Russia of the signing of the ‘Defence and Military Cooperation Agreement’ with Pakistan? Is it just connected with the impending exit of US Forces from Afghanistan or is it a recasting of its strategic blueprint by Russia in South Asia? The Indian policy establishment needs to decipher this. Significant was a statement in the Pakistani media quoted in inverted commas attributing it to the Russian

Image credits- Flickr/ The Presidency of South Africa Source- The Eurasia review Author- Hari Bansh Jha The recently established New Development Bank (NDB) by BRICS member countries and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) by 21-member Asian countries with their headquarters in China herald a shift in economic power from the West to the East. It is speculated that these two monetary institutions would dwarf the size of West-supported World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Only time will tell how NDB and AIIB emerge as alternative source of funding in the international financial market. But it has almost become certain that the era of West’s control over the international financial resources has started eroding. The first jolt to the international financial institutions like the WB and IMF was exhibited when the five BRICS countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa made an agreement for the establishment of the long awa

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ United States Navy Source- The Diplomat Author-  Koh Swee Lean Collin and  Darshana M. Baruah Tensions in Asia are rising over  unresolved territorial disputes and sovereignty issues . In contrast to the immediate post-Cold War period, recent tensions are characterized by the evident proclivity of some, if not all, parties towards the threat or use of limited force. As a much preferred tool of statecraft, maritime platforms tend to be the archetypical instrument for this sort of diplomacy. The spike in maritime encounters in recent years have largely involved coastguard-type forces in disputed waters of the East and South China Seas. More recently, though, regular naval ships have begun to appear on the scene. Not only do heavily armed warships cast an ominous shadow over the coastguard vessels operating on the frontlines, at times they become involved, for instance by directing fire control radar at opposing military assets in the

BRICS heads of State ( Image credits- Flickr/ The Presidency of South Africa) Source- The Diplomat Author- Anthony Fensom China’s citizens may have celebrated “ APEC blue ” skies at the recent Beijing summit. But amid the nation’s recent diplomatic triumphs, analysts suggest China could still be eclipsed by India as Beijing confronts growing environmental and structural challenges. Speaking at Brisbane’s recent G20 Leaders’ Summit, China’s Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said the world’s second-biggest economy was undergoing “a period of pain” as it tackled structural problems threatening its growth targets. “We do have problems that have been accumulated over time…the first is the overcapacity of our economy, second is the problem of shadow banking, and the third main problem is debt accumulated over time by local Chinese governments,” he said. Zhu said the world economy “faces greater downward risks,” with the Chinese economy also adjusting to a “new normal” of slow

Image credits- Shutter Stock/ Maxim Tupikov Source- The diplomat Author- Clint Richards North Korea is taking its typical approach to international condemnation, by both lashing out at the West (primarily the U.S.) and reaching out to whichever ally is most readily available (Russia in this instance). It is an old game that has relatively few surprises left, as ballistic missile tests have become old news, and even its nuclear program has had three tests without triggering any kind of military response. While it may seem that Pyongyang has boxed itself into a corner with very few options available, the regime’s ability to sustain itself in spite of near total isolation is its ultimate trump card, as nobody seems have to the ability or willingness to force North Korea’s leadership to face the accusations brought against it. This latest round of confrontation began on Tuesday with the passage of a UN draft resolution, which recommended that the International Criminal Co

Mi-35 ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) Source- The Diplomat Author- Ankit Panda Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Pakistan for a day-long visit on Thursday. During his visit to Islamabad, Shoigu met Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the two addressed several issues related to security and defense cooperation between Russia and Pakistan. The two countries will sign an important memorandum of understanding on defense cooperation that will form the foundation of their growing defense partnership. Although Russia is a major arms exporter to Pakistan’s rival India, it is looking to shore up its involvement in Pakistan amid that country’s growing appetite for Russian hardware. Most recently, Pakistan concluded a deal to purchased MI-35 Hind helicopters from Russia. According to Dawn, Russia’s decision to court Pakistan as a defense customer was in part spurred by growing ties between the United States and India. Although Russia has been major militar

Source- The National Interest Author- Andy Morimoto The idea that China cannot rise peacefully has become something of an international-relations truism. The story here is simple: as China’s economy grows, its military will follow, and just as other great powers have used force to achieve their foreign-policy goals, so, too, will China. Yet while much ink has been spilled to explore the security implications of China’s rise, relatively few attempts have been made to examine the potential effects of a sudden and prolonged economic downturn. This might be about to change. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, China’s growth will decline sharply in the coming decade, from 7.7 percent in 2013 to 3.9 percent between 2020 and 2025. Some analysts are more pessimistic, projecting future growth rates as low as 1.6 or 1.7 percent. (To put these numbers in perspective, China grew at an average annual rate of 10.2 percent from 1980 to 2011.) These trends have led some at th

Sikkim ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Flickr/ Steve Evans) Source- The Diplomat Author- Mukesh Rawat Ever since the days of Jawaharlal Nehru, representation has been among the gravest and most persistent issues confronting India’s Northeast. It is a tragedy that this part of the country – a land of mesmerizing beauty, a rich cultural legacy, and the diversity that India so loves – has not been able to win sympathy among the ruling elites in New Delhi in the six decades since Independence. Instead, the people of Northeast India have largely been seen as separatists. Even today, the perception remains that the region is somehow antithetical to Indian democracy, a perception that has often been exploited for political purposes. True, secession was a serious issue in the early days following Independence, giving rising to scores of outfits such as the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA). But while insurgency activit