Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Image credits- VOA Source- The National Interest Author-  Joseph A. Bosco Former Pacific Commander and former Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair has rendered yet another valuable public service, this time as head of Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA (SPF). The organization has produced a comprehensive report assessing China’s evolving strategic posture and presenting alternative scenarios for the U.S.-Japan alliance response to the ensuing threats and opportunities. While the paper is dispassionate and clear-eyed about the risks and openings presented by China's rise, the implications are ominous. The paper posits four possible outcomes for a future China: a powerful and benevolent state; a powerful and aggressive state; a weak and inward-looking state, or a weak and aggressive state. The study offers a caveat, however: “It is dangerous to base an Alliance strategy on a single future for the China of 2030 It will not fall neatly into any of the four alte

Image credits- Indian Navy South China Sea has been in news in recent times due to the aggressive activities of the Chinese which includes island buildings and aggressive petrols. South China sea is critical for the world commerce as it encompass major trade route connecting the far east with rest of Asia and Europe.  China's claim: China's obscure claim to the entire South China Sea relies on unreliable historic documents. China claims the entire of South China Sea in what they call the nine dash line. China has been in the past decade fortifying their claims with rapidly expanding the islands by incorporating construction and expansion. That put them in direct conflict with almost all off the other countries which has coastline with South China Sea including Vietnam and Philippines to name a few.  The threat to Indian security from an ever expanding China: China has been expanding it's reach into the Indian Ocean region which India considers to be i

USS Howard, DDG-83 ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- The National Interest Author-  Richard Javad Heydarian The world is steadily confronting the prospect of full-fledged Chinese domination in the world’s most important waterway, the South China Sea. America’s decades-long naval hegemony in Asia, as we know it, may soon vanish into thin air as a resurgent China reclaims primacy in the region. Though economically vulnerable, Beijing has lacked nothing in terms of geopolitical assertiveness. In a span of two months, China has dramatically redrawn the operational landscape in adjacent waters. China kicked off the year with a bang, conducting several test flights to its newly built airstrips in the Spratly chain of islands. This was followed by China’s decision to (once again) deploy a giant oil rig, Haiyang Shiyou 981, into Vietnamese-claimed waters in the South China Sea, just as Hanoi deliberated on a high-stakes leadership transition. W

Chinese PLAAF J-11  ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Air Force) Source- The National Interest Author- Ashley Townshend China's recent deployments on Woody Island carry a larger strategic significance. Aside from being unmistakable signs of militarization, Beijing's actions highlight both the effectiveness of its strategic expansion into the South China Sea, and the dilemma Washington and others face in crafting a response. Reports last week that China has sent J-11 fighter jets to Woody Island came less than ten days after satellite images revealed two batteries of HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles had been deployed to the disputed island. While provocative, neither deployment is entirely unprecedented. Rather, they represent the latest in a series of incremental steps that Beijing has taken to bolster its strategic foothold in the Paracel Islands.  Since late 2012, China has been steadily upgrading Woody Island's port facilities, radars a

PLAN Type- 54A Frigate ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- The National Interest Author- Peter Layton China is once again causing concern in the South China Sea, this time by moving surface-to-air missiles to the Paracel Islands. Over several years, this dispute has evolved into a clash of opposing strategies, with China steadily expanding its territorial, economic and military footprint in the South China Sea while other countries counter with either “balancing” or “rules-based order” strategies. So far, China's strategy has proved more successful. Why have these “balancing” and “rules-based order” strategies failed? What strategies might succeed? Balancing strategies stress building greater relative power, usually militarily. A state can then threaten or employ violence to dissuade an adversary from taking unwanted actions. An example is Vietnam, which is modernizing its naval and air forces, improving its paramilitary forces (C

USS Lassen, DDG-82 underway ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Steven Stashwick Baudelaire said the devil’s best trick was convincing us he did not exist. China’s best trick might be convincing us its claims over the South China Sea do exist. Official rhetoric about its “indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands” certainly sounds like a definitive Chinese position. And, of course, China occupies many islands in the area, its Coast Guard chases off foreign fishing vessels, and massive Chinese land reclamation projects provide new, persistent regional presence. But with the notable exception of the Paracel islands between Hainan Island and Vietnam, China has made no valid legal claim over the South China Sea. Instead, China’s official ambiguity appears carefully calibrated to produce international media coverage that proselytizes far more expansive claims than really exist. That popular narrative (like the p

USS Curtis ( DDG-54) Wilbur underway ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Shannon Tiezzi As The Diplomat previously reported, the United States has conducted a second freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) within 12 nautical miles of a disputed island in the South China Sea. On January 30, the USS Curtis Wilbur, a guided-missile destroyer, sailed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels, which is controlled by China but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. This particular FONOP was designed to assert the right of innocent passage through territorial waters without having to give advance notice (something both China and Vietnam demand when foreign vessels transit through territorial waters in the Paracels. China’s Foreign Ministry responded sternly to the FONOP, saying that “the U.S. navy vessel violated the relevant Chinese law and entered China’s territorial sea without authorization.” As spokesperson

USS Curtis Wilbur underway ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / US Navy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Ankit Panda On Saturday, a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer, the USS Curtis Wilbur, sailed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. Triton Island is claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and is administered by China. The Curtis Wilbur‘s passage near Triton Island marks the first freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea since the U.S. Navy sailed the USS Lassen within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands, marking 95 days between the two operations. Triton Island is not among the features where China has built artificial islands and constructed military and civilian features. According to Captain Jeff Davis, a spokesperson for the Pentagon, no Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) vessels attempted to inhibit the Curtis Wilbur‘s passage unlike during the October freedom of na