Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Chinese Yaun ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) Source- The National Interest Author- Rishika Chauhan “Major powers have to work with each other even if their interests diverge on some issues,” India’s Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar stressed at the recently concluded India China Think-Tanks Forum in New Delhi. However, within the next few days, two articles in significant Indian and Chinese dailies seemed to have dampened the spirit of cooperation. Talking about a Chinese consignment worth $2.8 million dispatched to Nepal, a widely circulated Indian newspaper said that the shipment “will severely hit Indian businesses.” A reporter at the Chinese state-run Global Times was quick to respond, insisting the move did not mean that “Chinese goods will push Indian products out of the country.” Impassioned media debates ensued. While reports of competition between the two rising states is common, such discussions have been frequent since September of last year. Accusing Ind

Bombay   Stock Exchange  ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Elroy Serrao)  Source- The National Interest Author- Samuel Rines Will today’s five largest economies—China, the United States, India, Japan and Germany—maintain their places between now and 2030? Or will see a reshuffling? China has already passed the United States in terms of Purchasing Power Parity Gross Domestic Product (PPP GDP)—a method of measuring the relative purchasing power of a nation used throughout this piece. Granted, this is only one measure of wealth, and much of China remains poor, but it illustrates that measurement matters. By other measures, such as current dollar GDP, the United States is still the largest economy, and it is likely that U.S. economic dominance will continue. The United States has a few advantages in remaining a top economic power. Unlike China, the United States has already pivoted from manufacturing toward services, thereby reducing its reliance on exports for

Singapore Keppel Terminal ( Source- Wikimedia Commons / Credits- Calvin Teo) Source- The Diplomat Author- Anthony Fensom China’s slowdown may have rattled markets, but Asia is still expected to remain the world’s economic growth engine through the end of the decade, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). In a July 29 presentation, Duncan-Innes Ker, EIU regional editor for Asia, said Asia stood out as the only economic region recording fast rates of growth, in stark contrast to the Eurozone’s woes, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and stagnation in much of Latin America. According to the EIU, South Asia is expected to lead the pack with an average of around 7 percent annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth through to 2019, followed by China (over 6 percent) and ASEAN at 5 percent. In contrast, Latin America is forecast to post around 2.5 percent GDP growth, slightly ahead of the United States at over 2 percent and exceeding the Eurozone’s 1.

Bombay stock exchange ( Source- Wikimedia Commons /Author- Niyantha Shekhar) Source- Want China Times India's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) might surpass China's in 2015, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reports Nihon Keizai Shimbum, a Japanese news outlet based in Tokyo, cited by Beijing-based Reference News. However, India has many issues to resolve in order to spread wealth across the whole country, the fund said. The IMF predicted that India's real GDP growth will be 7.5% in 2015, said the report. India's nominal GDP in 2015 will reach US$1,800 per capita, which is the same as China's GDP per capita was in 2005. India will see a shift from consumption-led growth to investment-led growth, according to the IMF. This transition will give India the chance to surpass China's predicted 6.8% growth in real GDP in 2015, according to Reference News. In terms of nominal GDP, however, China's growth figure will still

RBI Tower ( Image source- Wikimedia Commons / Author- Nichal P) Source- The National Interest Author- Christopher Whalen Back in August of last year, TNI described why India’s economic prospects are brighter than those of China (“Beware, China: India's Economy Could Have an Even Brighter Future,”). That judgment seems to have been confirmed by subsequent events. As we noted at the time, "When all is said and done, the difference between India and China can be summed up in one word: freedom." India is now clearly outperforming the other emerging nations, particularly China, a nation hobbled by a command economy and one of the most corrupt political systems on the planet. “As Brazil, Russia and China hit hurdles, it’s the poorest member of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s emerging-market group that’s proving a darling of global investors,” Bloomberg News reported in February. “The International Monetary Fund is predicting India will next year grow faster than ea

Image credits- Narendra Modi  Source- Eurasia Review Author- Institute of South Asian Studies India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to France, Germany and Canada marked the continuation of a pattern of external engagement that is now becoming increasingly identifiable by its economic drivers. In less than a year since assuming office, Mr Modi has travelled to more than a dozen countries. Most of these travels have been state visits, occasionally interspersed with multilateral missions (e.g. Brazil and Australia in July and November 2014).2 In what has been a vigorous and robust engagement spanning across continents and regions, Mr Modi’s travels have generated considerable enthusiasm among the host-country administrations, local media and the resident Indian communities. Unlike the more sedate and relatively low-profile foreign tours by India’s former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Mr Modi’s foreign visits have been well- orchestrated and meticulousl

Image source- Wikimedia Commons / Credits- Srisez  Source- The Diplomat Author- Anthony Fensom India has emerged as Asia’s leading light as China’s slowdown continues and other developing economies struggle to pick up speed, according to the latest economic indicators. On Wednesday, China released data showing the world’s second-biggest economy expanded at its weakest pace since 2009 in the March quarter, slowing to an annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 7 percent on lower investment growth and a weak property sector. While in line with Beijing’s official target and the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, industrial production slowed to its lowest level since 2008 and fixed asset investment hit a record low, causing Asian stocks and market interest rates to fall. For the quarter, China’s economy grew by 1.3 percent, down from 1.5 percent growth in the previous quarter, with analysts urging further monetary easing to counter

Image credits- Flickr / MEA Official photo gallery, Government of India Source- The National Interest Authors- Jon Huntsman Jr & Bharath Gopalaswamy Although India’s economic story has been the subject of much discussion in the United States in the past decade, its foreign policy has not received similar attention. This has something to do with the consensus in Washington about India’s hesitancy in the exercise of realpolitik. Last month, however, India’s newly appointed foreign secretary and leading strategist Subrahmanyam Jaishankar delivered an attention getter. In a major speech, Jaishankar emphasized that India was intent on playing the role of a “leading” instead a “balancing” power in Asia. This statement comes as a significant shift to the prevailing perceptions concerning India’s reluctance to actualize its role as a great power.   Until recently, India was seen as a power that could serve as a counterweight to China and help the United States in bal

Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Navi Mumbai ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author- Jaxer) Source- The Diplomat Authors- Bipul Chatterjee & Surender Singh Mega regional trade deals are in vogue in an otherwise fragile global economy. In an environment of falling aggregate demand, these trade deals are seen as a means to insulate economies from market uncertainties. Three important mega regionals are currently under negotiation: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership of Asia and the Pacific (RCEP), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). It is expected that these agreements, once concluded and implemented, will set the stage for a new generation of global trade and investment rules. From India’s point of view, the RCEP presents a decisive platform which could influence its strategic and economic status in the Asia-Pacific region and bring to fruition its “Act East Policy.” It is expected to be a