Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Indian and Japanese Prime Ministers ( Image credits- Narendra Modi Official) After about two months, I am back with a new blog. My job had kept me busy. But in the last two months, the world especially Asia has changed forever. The greatest story to happen in recent years has been the Chinese rise. China has become the factory of the worldmaking anything from mobile to a bicycle. China is the key pillar of the global economy. Until 2010, China's rise was considered to be peaceful. But China decided to stop playing nice. China started it's aggressive policy of expansion starting off with it's nine-dash line in the South China Sea based on some obscure historic claim. It also started claiming territory belonging to it's neighbours extending from India to Vietnam to Japan. China also initiated it's One Belt and Road Initiative that seeks to develop infrastructure and rebuild the ancient Silk Route through land and sea connecting Asia with Africa and Europe. But

USN FA-18 Super Hornet ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / USN) Source- The National Interes t Author- Joseph A. Bosco “America doesn't win anymore” was a constant Donald Trump campaign theme and a situation he pledged to reverse. But before we start winning again we need to stop losing — especially with China, which candidate Trump named as the prime exploiter of America's diplomatic naiveté. While he focused on trade and currency issues, we have been losing to Beijing even more dangerously on national security issues. North Korea, the South China Sea and Taiwan are three Asian flashpoints where China's interests are inimical to American interests and values—any one of which could suddenly bring the United States and China into military conflict ( To read the full article, click here ......)

USS John Stennis on petrol ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- The National Interest  Author- Michael Mazza The accepted wisdom has it that, as a general rule, Chinese leaders should not be made to “lose face.” In the wake of last week’s Permanent Court of Arbitration award in Philippines v. China, a veritable chorus of China hands has called for the United States to support the ruling, but to avoid rubbing Xi Jinping’s nose in the dirt. Giving “face” to Xi Jinping—essentially, allowing him to escape the current predicament without incurring further shame—is important if we are to avoid a dangerous escalation of tensions, or so the thinking goes. There is a certain logic here. Xi Jinping has just suffered a significant defeat on the international stage, and at the hands of lowly Manila, no less. Should other countries now act with what Chinese citizens or leaders perceive to be disrespect, Xi will look weaker and more ineffective than he

USS Nimitz ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- The National Interest Author- Anders Corr The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague released a stinging rebuke to China in last week’s ruling on the arbitration case brought by the Philippines. Philippine presidents Benigno Aquino III and Rodrigo Duterte both risked their relations with China by initiating and, in the latter case, not acquiescing to Chinese demands that they withdraw the case. The Philippines should be strongly supported by the United States and our allies in this moment of need, including through U.S. naval enforcement of the ruling and U.S. ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The intensity and unanimity of the court’s ruling was a surprise to most analysts, and must feel like a crushing humiliation to Chinese officials. China reacted swiftly and with equal intensity. “The arbitration tribunal made the illegal and invalid so-called final verdict on

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / USN Source- The National Interest Author- Sam Bateman Recent months have seen a continuing increase in military activities in the South China Sea, particularly by the United States and China, but also by ‘bit players’ like India and Japan. These activities only serve to heighten tensions in the region at a time when the priority should be to demilitarize the area. In the most recent serious incident, on May 17, two Chinese fighter jets intercepted a US Navy EP-3 intelligence and surveillance aircraft about 50 nautical miles east of Hainan Island. This incident could have violated agreed upon procedures between the United States and China to manage such encounters. It follows earlier incidents when Chinese jet fighters intercepted US P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft over the South China and Yellow seas. The United States recently conducted its third freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea since China star

PLAN Type- 54A Frigate Daqing ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Simon Yang) Source- The National Interest Author- Dean Cheng There is a lot going on in Southeast Asia. The United States has conducted another freedom of navigation operation in the area of several disputed islands. The American Aegis destroyer USS William P. Lawrence sailed within 12 nautical miles of the artificial Chinese island built atop Fiery Cross Reef. Because Fiery Cross Reef began as a “high tide elevation (HTE),” (meaning: a rock) it is entitled to a 12 nautical mile zone of territorial waters. The United States therefore chose to conduct an “innocent passage,” sailing across the 12 nautical mile zone with its radars off, helicopter grounded, and weapons aimed fore-and-aft. Its main challenge to the Chinese was conducting its passage without giving the People’s Republic of China prior notification. So, the administration continues to conduct freedom of navigation operations at a de

Malabar Series of Exercises ( Image credits- VOA) Source- The National Interest Author- Kevin Knodell Washington and New Delhi are getting a lot more serious about military-to-military ties. As the United States and India become more wary of an increasingly assertive China, the two countries are gradually edging closer together. On May 16, American and Indian officials met for a “maritime security dialogue” in New Delhi. “The dialogue covered issues of mutual interest, including exchange of perspectives on maritime security development in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region as well as prospects for further strengthening cooperation between India and the United States in this regard,” stated an Indian Ministry of External Affairs press release. Washington and New Delhi are also close to formalizing a historic military cooperation agreement hazily called the “Logistics Support Agreement” — or LSA. The agreement would allow the two militaries to use each other’

USS John C. Stennis ( Image credits- Flickr / United States Navy) Source- Eurasia Review Author- MINA  China has denied a US request for an aircraft carrier group led by USS John C. Stennis to make a port visit to Hong Kong, the US State Department said on Friday, confirming earlier media reports. Pentagon spokesman, Commander Bill Urban, said another US warship, the USS Blue Ridge, was currently in Hong Kong on a stop-over and the US expected that to continue. Urban added that the request for a Hong Kong visit by the carrier and its strike group, which have been patrolling the South China Sea, was recently denied, despite a “long track record of successful port visits to Hong Kong.” The Chinese government, as well as the country’s embassy in Washington did not comment. The warship requested a port call permit early on Thursday. The South China Morning Post newspaper, citing the Chinese Foreign Ministry, reported that port calls by US warships and m

Image credits- VOA Source- The National Interest Author- James Goldrick China's leadership faces difficult decisions in the South China Sea. China is at some risk of achieving what it sees as a military success at the price of losing the peace. There is increasing evidence that its land creation (for they are not 'reclamation') activities in the South China Sea are developing a network of bases that will support fixed sensors, such as radars and underwater arrays, as well as the operations of air and seaborne surveillance units. The cumulative effect intended by Chinese planners appears to be to make it too dangerous during a conflict for other nations, most notably the US, to conduct significant military operations in the area, whether on, under or over the South China Sea; and certainly to make sure that none will go undetected in peacetime. China's goal is to be able to regard the sea areas south of Hainan Island as a safe haven for its naval f

Image credits- Flickr/ United States Navy Source- The National Interest Author- Eddie Linczer China’s domination of the South China Sea is not yet a fait accompli, but the United States must implement a countercoercion strategy more urgently in order to maintain a favorable balance of power. Since the beginning of this year, China has deployed surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles, as well as fighter aircraft, to Woody Island, a part of the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea. These actions are stepping stones for China to dispatch missile batteries and jets to the more geopolitically significant Spratly Island chain. Now, there is growing concern that Beijing may declare an air-defense identification zone in the South China Sea. Left unchallenged, the Chinese are on track to create “mini denial zones” and bring greater coercive force to bear against neighboring Southeast Asian states. If current trends continue, the South China Sea will be a “Chinese lake” b

Image credits- United States DOD Source- The National Interest Authors-  Truong-Minh , VuNgo Di Lan China’s growing assertiveness regarding maritime disputes in the South China Sea is not the result of a burst of nationalism or any short-term calculation. In fact, China has consistently pursued a single long-term strategy with the effective control of the entire South China Sea as its ultimate goal. This strategy has five core features. First and foremost, it seeks to change the territorial status quo gradually, island-by-island. This stands in contrast to a strategy whereby a country tries to gobble up the entire disputed territory in one fell swoop. China first occupied the Paracel Islands in 1974 and then slowly expanded its presence southward by attacking Vietnam’s islands in the Spratly chain in the 1980s. Most recently, after a tense standoff with the Philippines, China took effective control of the Scarborough Shoal, thereby changing the territorial status qu