Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Terrorist attack at Paris, November 2015 ( Image credits- VOA) Source- The National Interest Author- Zalmay Khalilzad The U.S. response to Islamic extremism has gone through two phases since the 9/11 attacks.  In the early years after the attacks, the Bush Administration treated Islamist terrorism as an existential threat and assumed that it was a symptom of the political and economic dysfunctionality of the greater Middle East.  Washington during this period not only strengthened homeland security and went after al-Qaeda and its affiliates, but also undermined and overthrew state sponsors of terrorism.  The Bush Administration calculated that the Middle East, like Europe and East Asia after World War II, could become a functional and normal region. Facing massive costs in Afghanistan and Iraq and increased sectarian conflicts in the region, the United States recalibrated. Under President Obama, America maintained robust policies on homeland security and counterterror

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Credits- VOA Source- ASPI Author- David Kilcullen In the Islamic State (ISIS), we face a determined enemy melding terrorism and guerrilla warfare with an expansionist, state-building agenda and a mastery of online propaganda. And no country has yet mustered the political will or strategic understanding to defeat the group. In strikingly similar speeches on both sides of the Atlantic on 6 July 6, US President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron each admitted that no complete strategy is yet in place, and acknowledged this will be a protracted ‘generational’ struggle with many setbacks. Over the past year, since its capture of Mosul drew a belated response from the United States, Australia and others, ISIS has adapted to western counterterror efforts, repeatedly beaten Iraqi and Syrian regular troops and Iranian-backed militias, established provinces in Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, the Caucasus, Yemen, Afghanistan,

Image credits- BBC World / Farahnaz Hesarmal Source- The Diplomat Author- Brian M. Parkins According to a recent Pentagon report, the Islamic State’s (IS) activities in Afghanistan remain exploratory, with limited recruiting efforts. Although the capabilities of the Islamic State’s recently minted Khorasan Province may be limited, the group is clearly attempting to gain a toehold in Afghanistan. IS has dominated headlines in Afghan media for the past several weeks, with multiple reports of the group clashing with Taliban fighters in Nangarhar and a Taliban letter warning IS to stay out of Afghanistan. There is speculation that the Afghan government is exaggerating the IS threat to draw increased foreign aid, but the group’s presence is undeniable, and the worsening security situation could pave the way for IS to enhance its operations The Islamic State’s motives in Afghanistan remain ambiguous, and it is unclear if the group is capable of holding swaths of territory w

ISIL Militants ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author- Menendj) Source- International Policy Digest Author- Robert Sharp The catalogue of atrocities committed by Daesh pails in comparison to any committed even by Al Qaeda core. Their public executions by beheading and now by burning alive, must be stopped. Today’s execution of Jordanian Lieutenant Moaz al-Kasasbeh, the pilot hostage, represents a strategic inflection point, and a game changer that suggests: “enough is enough, time to act!” Advocates of diplomacy will likely refer to a trinity of escalating political measures against Daesh through persuasion, coercion and then a threat or show of force. Politics have been in play throughout, with Jordan recently engaging Daesh directly in their valiant attempt to save Lieutenant Moaz and also Japanese hostage Kenji Goto following the beheading of his countryman Haruna Yukawa a few days earlier. Politics is failing. Advocates of informational approaches talk abo

Taliban in Herat ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) Source- The Strategic Culture Author- Nikolai Bobkin The leaders of the Islamic State (IS) have announced their intention to spread the group’s activities eastward, including Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US does not rush to recognize the fact of Islamic State’s presence in Afghanistan, but Kabul does not deny the information that the group’s militants coming from Syria and Iraq are operating in the country.  According to Afghan official sources, the Islamic State is recruiting in Afghanistan with dozens of propagandists sent to spread the group’s ideas among the ranks of young people. «We will either become captors or martyrs», say propaganda messages from the Islamic State published in Fatah, a pamphlet published in local languages and distributed to Afghans. These pamphlets invite citizens of Afghanistan to pledge allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-declared caliph of IS, and join the jihad against non-b

ISIS Militia ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author- Menendj) Source- The National Interest Author- Paul R. Pillar The fortunes of the extreme and violent group known variously as ISIS/ISIL/Islamic State seem to have changed markedly during the past few months. This summer the group was commonly portrayed, amid much alarm, as a relentless juggernaut that was scooping up so much real estate that it was a threat to overrun Baghdad and much else far beyond. But the progress that was so frightening to follow in maps in the newspaper has stopped. The juggernaut has stalled. There will be endless debate about the causes of this change of momentum, ranging from military measures that the United States has taken to the somewhat more enlightened policies of the Iraqi central government. These and other influences have their effects, but the larger phenomenon of the decline of ISIS—decline not just that has happened so far but is yet to come—can be explained most of all by the

Source- The Diplomat Author- S.K Chatterji The Islamic Caliphate is no longer virtual reality; it’s a tangible experience. Islamic State (also known as ISIS and ISIL) has the basic essentials that make it a serious threat. It has territory, it has the military capability to hold on to its territory, and it has a system of governance, however demented it may be. Of course, its barely contested march has now been stalled by air strikes, the recapture of the Baiji refinery has been hailed by Iraqis as a changing of the tide, and the Peshmerga are gradually coming into their own at Kobani. Still, with the exception of Baiji, there has as yet there has been no substantial reversal of the gains that the Islamic state has made. The caliphate’s leadership is ambitious, ruthless and singularly focused on spreading its distorted vision of political Islam. Al-Qaeda, for decades the beacon for Islamists, has taken a different approach to jihad, with a strategy that has involved wid

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author- Menendj Source- The Diplomat Author- Arif Rafiq In an audio statement released last week, the former Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman Shahidullah Shahid announced that he and five other commanders from the terror group have given the bay’ah (oath of allegiance) to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-styled “caliph” of the group that describes itself as the Islamic State (IS), and is also known as ISIS and ISIL. This is the first public defection of commanders from the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban groups to IS. Their defection portends further divisions within Pakistan’s jihadist community, which has rapidly splintered since the killing of the TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud last fall in a U.S. drone strike. These divisions could result in heightened violence between anti-state jihadist groups in Pakistan. But Pakistan is also likely to see a rise in both sectarian and overall violence. Down the road, there is a risk that Pak

American and Iraqi soldiers in joint operation ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author- United States Army) Sources- The Diplomat Tanned, green-eyed, long-bearded Pashtun crossing the border from Afghanistan have never been so feared in Peshawar, the capital city of the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan. Through history this region has been one of the busiest in Central Asia, connecting travelers, traders and storytellers to India and beyond. But the recent decade has been agonizing for local Pashtun, with their identity and geography appropriated by militant groups like al-Qaeda and the Taliban, as well as their various factions in the region. This week brought the biggest blow yet, when the formidable Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS and ISIL) was discovered openly recruiting in the city. Local fighters in Peshawar and FATA were seen to be showing around about a dozen men who had crossed over from Afghanistan to Pakistan to promote the cause of the caliphate.