Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

INS Chakra ( Image source- Wikimedia Commons / Credits- Ajai Shukla) Source- The National Interest Author- David Brewster While the world focuses on the dangers that a nuclear-armed Iran could present in the Middle East, a potentially more dangerous and unstable nuclear proliferation is occurring in the Indian Ocean. In the coming years India, Pakistan, and perhaps China will likely deploy a significant number of nuclear weapons at sea in the Indian Ocean. This could further destabilize already unstable nuclear relationships, creating a real risk of a sea-based exchange of nuclear weapons. Observers have long seen India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry as the most unstable in the world, and South Asia as the most likely location of nuclear conflict. This is not just academic speculation. Foreign diplomats have been evacuated from Islamabad on several occasions from fears of an impending nuclear exchange with India. India has a “no first use” (NFU) nuclear-weapons pol

Image source- Flickr / Credits- Presidency of Sri Lanka Source- The Diplomat Author- Nilanthi Samaranayake Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent trip to Sri Lanka highlights New Delhi’s reawakening to the strategic position that Sri Lanka holds in India’s neighborhood. Since 2008, India has watched as China built port facilities, highways, and other major infrastructure in Sri Lanka. People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy warships have also paid port visits to Sri Lanka, even taking in Trincomalee, where India has been sensitive to any extraregional presence for decades. Most recently, in September and October 2014, New Delhi became unsettled at the sight of a conventional Chinese submarine and a tender ship openly paying port visits in Colombo on the way to counter piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden. Despite the public nature of the docking and advance notice, Indian policymakers appeared to be taken by surprise and feared India had lost strategic ground to China re

Image credits- Narendra Modi Official Source- The Diplomat Author- Ankit Panda Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tour across the Indian Ocean this month was long overdue. Despite its name, the Indian Ocean has not firmly been under India’s custodianship, despite New Delhi’s status as the most capable sea-faring state in the region. During his trip, Modi visited Sri Lanka, Seychelles, and Mauritius — Maldives was struck from his original itinerary after the government there jailed an opposition leader — and addressed defense and security cooperation in each capital. In concrete terms, Modi’s visit highlighted India’s continuing interest in deploying and maintaining a network of coastal surveillance radars across the region, leading to heightened intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and maritime domain awareness for the Indian Navy and Coast Guard. The high point for India’s planned CSR network came during Modi’s one-day visit to Sey

Image credits- MEA Official Gallery Source- The Diplomat Author- S.K Chatterji The power equations in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) have implications not only for the littoral states but for the entire Asia-Pacific region. Through the Indian Ocean run some of the busiest sea lanes globally, as oil and natural resources traverse from west to east to feed the burgeoning needs of the world’s second largest economy, China, and the country it dislodged from that slot, Japan. By virtue of its size, geographic location, and economic and military potential India is expected to play a leading role in keeping the sea lanes of communication through the Indian Ocean safe for international trade and commerce. The growing might of the Chinese Navy and its outreach to IOR nations is a concern, one not entirely limited to India. China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea is shaping regional apprehensions. Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Taiwan, South Korea, Philippines,

Source- The Diplomat Author- Rohan Joshi India’s neighborhood is in the midst of significant change. In Sri Lanka, an unlikely coalition with former Minister of Health Maithripala Sirisena defeated Mahinda Rajapaksa in the country’s presidential election in January.  In the Maldives, former president Mohamed Nasheed, having been systematically harassed since a de facto coup in 2012, has been sentenced to 13 years in prison and found guilty of terrorism.  Afghanistan’s future looks precarious as a unity government led by President Ashraf Ghani attempts to make peace with the Afghan Taliban. Islamist forces in Bangladesh continue to challenge the secular fabric of the state, resulting in upswing in attacks against Hindu and Buddhist minorities. Those who champion the cause of freedom and tolerance are being silenced, the heinous murder of blogger Avijit Roy earlier this month being but the most recent example. These transformative events coincide with India having wit

Image credits- MEA Official photos Source- The Diplomat Author- Darshana M. Baruah As China continues to draw attention to the South China Sea with its land reclamation and creation of artificial islands, it is also important to look at Chinese activities in the not-so-contentious but strategically important Indian Ocean Region. Beijing, with the help of economic and commercial initiatives, is mapping out a web of influence by increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean. As I argued in a previous article published by The Diplomat, access to and control of the islands in the Indian Ocean is crucial for Beijing to secure its strategic interests in the region. There are two reasons for China’s expansion into the Indian Ocean. First, some of these islands — such as Kyaukpyu — can prove to be China’s answer to its Malacca Dilemma, strengthening its energy security by reducing its dependence on the Strait of Malacca. Second, an increasing presence in the Indian Ocean

Karl Hausheofer ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) Source- The Diplomat Author- Francis P. Sempa Long before Robert Kaplan identified the Indian Ocean and its surrounding region as the new geopolitical pivot of world politics in his 2010 book Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, the leading intellectual theorist of German geopolitics in the 1920s and 30s, Karl Haushofer, foresaw the power potential of what he called the “Indo-Pacific” or “Asiatic Monsoon countries” and urged German policymakers to promote the geopolitical unity of this region to offset British and American sea power. Born in Munich on the eve of the Franco-Prussian War, Haushofer studied at the Royal Maximilian Gymnasium before joining the Bavarian Army in 1887. He excelled at the Military Academy (Kriegsschule), attended artillery and engineering school, and from 1895 to 1898 studied at the General Staff College (Kriegsakademie). Between 1898 and 1908, Haushofer served with th

Image credits- MEA , Govt of India official image Source- The Diplomat Author- Ankit Panda Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will embark on his first tour abroad this year. Modi will conduct a three-nation tour across the Indian Ocean next week, stopping over in Seychelles, Mauritius, and Sri Lanka. The Maldives, a stop originally on Modi’s agenda, has been struck after the sudden emergence of a political crisis there in late February. Modi’s trip will focus on increasing Indian economic and strategic ties with these Indian Ocean states. Last September, before coming to India, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Sri Lanka and the Maldives, prompting Indian concern. Modi will spend the 11th of March in Seychelles before heading to Mauritius from the 11th to the 12th. He will conclude his trip in Sri Lanka on the 13th and 14th of the month. Modi will be the guest of honor at Mauritius’ National Day celebrations. Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka comes shortly after the count