Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Image source- Internet Source- The Telegraph Author- Julian Ryall North Korea has launched a domestically built submarine that is designed to fire ballistic missiles, raising new concerns about the growing threat posed by Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programmes. Military sources in South Korea say the vessel is based on a Golf II-class Soviet submarine that the North acquired in 1993, ostensibly for scrapping. The 3,500-ton Golf II was equipped with submarine-launched ballistic missiles that could carry a 2,600 lb warhead more than 880 miles. And although the Soviet-era vessel is obsolete and the Russian Navy insisted it could never return to service, North Korea is believed to have spent the last 20 years examining and replicating its missile launch system, which included the launch tubes and stabilisation equipment, according to analysts at the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University. The institute recently identified a new test stand at

Source- The Diplomat Author- John Power In between sobs, Park Yeonmi gave her account of life in North Korea. Public executions, arbitrary arrests, torture and suffocating censorship were just some of the harsh realities faced by people in “the darkest place in the world,” the 21-year-old defector told an international audience at the Young World Summit in Dublin, Ireland earlier this month. While North Korean defectors have spoken publicly about life under the regime before, the attractive university student has arguably captured the attention of international media like no other in recent memory. Her emotional speech in Dublin received coverage in outlets such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and the Daily Mail. But alongside outpourings of sympathy and praise, Park has also attracted a quieter but no less persistent stream of criticism from skeptics who reject her characterization of North Korea. Felix Abt is one such critic. A Swiss-born businessman who lived and work

Source- The Diplomat Author- Van Jackson Recent rumors of Kim Jong-un’s whereabouts and whether a coup had occurred put our ignorance about what goes on in North Korea on full display. Speculation is natural when it comes to palace intrigue in a post-totalitarian state; of course inquiring minds want to know. But even the most sagacious Korea experts have done little more than speculate. Many find solace in reports of Kim Jong-un’s appearance as confirming the status quo, forgetting that the status quo was rife with uncertainty – the very reason rumors swirled at the first sign of Kim Jong-un’s absence. Perhaps we can embrace the narrative that the North Korean regime (and many Korea watchers) wants us to believe: Kim Jong-un is firmly in power and his absence, even from key events, is not dispositive of that. But perhaps we should be more skeptical given the vast ocean of what we don’t know, rather than clinging to and extrapolating from the nuggets of what we think we

Sources- The National Interest Author- Peter Harris Fifty years ago, Washington insiders were preoccupied with speculation that Nikita Khrushchev was about to be ousted as leader of the Soviet Union.  Opaque to the outside world, the tall walls of the Kremlin denied America’s Sovietologists the ability to make firm predictions about when Khrushchev would go and exactly who would replace him.  Intelligence reports were clear, though, that something was afoot.  The LBJ administration was able to plan accordingly.  When Khrushchev was deposed, it came as little surprise. Today, talk is rife that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un might be about to undergo the same fate as Khrushchev.  To be sure, experts downplay the likelihood that Kim has been or will be overthrown.   Yet the recent flurry of conjecture about North Korea’s future only highlights the extent to which outsiders do not know what takes place along Pyongyang’s corridors of power.  The level of uncertainty is far beyond eve

Juche Tower, North Korea  ( Image credits- Wikimedia commons/ Author-Martyn Williams) When Kim Jong-un took power at the end of 2011, the then twenty-something North Korean leader became the youngest president of the world. Although his tender age might have suggested a radical shift was on its way, in fact the last two and a half years has kept the system largely intact, with only modest change in evidence. “If people hoped for a major shift after the death of Kim Jong-il, they have not gotten it. We have seen modifications and minor changes, but Kim Jong-un seems to have more or less followed the formula set by his father and his grandfather with a few twists here and there,” sums up Adam Catchart, professor at the University of Leeds and editor-in-chief of  Sino-NK , a website specializing in North Korean issues. Some of those minor changes have taken place in the economy. Although accurate numbers are hard to come by, Chen Xiaohe, an expert on North Korea from Renmin Univ

DPRK Soldier ( Image credits- Wikimedia commons/ Kristoferb) With little progress made on the denuclearization of North Korea since the failed Agreed Framework two decades ago, Washington’s approach to Pyongyang is largely defined by the number of sanctions imposed on the country and, in particular, its leaders. However, according to a  Daily NK   interview  with Dr. John Park, an expert on North Korean state trading entities, the current sanctions against Pyongyang have been of questionable effectiveness. Likening sanctions to antibiotics, Park said the regime may be developing immunity to sanctions because they have been over-prescribed. This is not to suggest that sanctions are bound to fail. Rather, Park encourages policymakers to study the nuances of each target and assess the secondary effects of the measures. There is definitely room for further research to “preserve the effectiveness of sanctions overall.” In the meantime, other factors beside sanctions are plaguing t

Type-33 (Romeo Class) Submarine( Image credits- Wikimedia commons/ Author) North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un  made headlines last month  when he visited the Korean People’s Army Naval Unit 167, part of the Korean People’s Navy (KPN) East Sea Fleet unit based in the South Hamgyong province. Photographs released by the Korean Central News Agency showed Kim on a rusty green-painted submarine No. 748, toying with the periscope in its control room. Kim also reportedly guided an actual drill onboard. Many foreign analysts used Kim’s visit to comment on the decrepit state of the submarine he was visiting. For example, South Korea’s Defense Ministry spokesman, Kim Min-Seok, remarked that: “It appears that Pyongyang aims to show off its submarine might, but the submarines that our Navy holds are far superior, as ours do not make much noise and it can stay underwater far longer.” The Technological Gap This view is not without merit. From a strictly technical standpoint, submarine No. 7

F-35 ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ USAF) It is only a matter of time before North Korea flaunts its ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead, deploy intercontinental ballistic missiles and road-mobile missile launchers, and expand its plutonium nuclear arsenal with highly enriched uranium warheads.  The cumulative failure of diplomacy to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs begs the question as to whether it is time to turn the tables on North Korea.  Rather than buy into a losing competitive strategy, hasn’t the time come for the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK), with the support of others, to pursue a strategy of active defense that alters the North’s cost-benefit calculus? The North Korean threat is inherently volatile and far more dangerous in the near-term than the sea skirmishes in the East and South China Seas.  Because the North threatens to escalate, however, democracies are reluctant to accept risk.  Former Secretary of Defense William P

North Korea launching missile ( Image courtesy- AP/KCNA) Pyongyang’s saber-rattling of late, coupled with multiple rocket engine tests and increased activity at the regime’s Pungyung-ri nuclear test site, have led many in Washington and Seoul to believe that the DPRK is  planning to conduct its fourth nuclear test  and/or another long-range missile test to enhance the credibility of its nuclear deterrent. But while public attention is once again on the idea of a North Korean nuclear-tipped ICBM that could threaten the continental United States, the strategic ground is shifting. Over the last nine to eight months the military balance on the Peninsula has tripped dramatically in favor of the U.S.-ROK alliance in terms of projecting land, sea and air superiority. In October 2013 for instance, the alliance introduced the concept of tailored “ tit-for-tat ” deterrence, significantly enhancing Seoul’s active defense posture and according to South Korean Minister of Defense Kim Kwa