Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

PLAN Type 52 B destroyer Guangzhou ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Author- Boleslav1)  Source- The Diplomat Author- Michael Carl Hass In a recent article in The Washington Quarterly, two well-respected scholars of Chinese military affairs seek to debunk the idea that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been designing its modernization drive and strategic planning around the concept of “counter-intervention,” which refers to the ability to force an outside power to stand off from the Chinese mainland and its immediate periphery during a conflict. Their assessment is based on a meticulous review of Chinese military texts, which the great majority of Western defense analysts will find difficult to dispute and which imbues their work with an air of scholarly authority, even where their judgments stray beyond what is warranted by their careful review of the language involved. The article has made quite a splash, with The Diplomat’s Franz-Stefan Gady going so far as

Chinese Carrier Liaoning ( Image credits- Internet photos/ Author- In the image) Source- The Diplomat Author- Greg Austin According to public reports, China is building two aircraft carriers, with plans to increase that to four, according to one report, and possibly a new class of helicopter carrier for amphibious assault. For many in China, this has been a necessary evolution for a country of such wealth and international power. For the government, it is part of a techno-nationalist campaign designed to show that the country is arriving at the highest level of international power. The idea is that China can do anything the other great powers do. It can land jet aircraft on a carrier, it can put a rover on the moon, and it can put a man in space. This is the decade of impressive and inspiring achievement we have seen from China. Yet the challenge China faces is that it is copying innovations first undertaken more than a few decades earlier (China was four decades late

PLAN Sailors ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Author- United States Navy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Franz-Stefan Gady Today, Defense News ran a very interesting piece attacking the often repeated assertion that China will soon be adding one additional fleet to the three existing ones (the North Sea, East Sea, and South Sea Fleets) it currently operates. This new fleet will allegedly be headquartered in Sanya on Hainan Island and project Chinese naval power into the Indian Ocean. One expert noted in 2014: “There have been reports that China is already creating a fourth fleet that would eventually consist of two Carrier Battle Groups based at Hainan Island. This fleet might be placed directly under the Central Military Commission, the highest military decision-making body, making it a powerful instrument of geopolitical signaling.” Yet, Defense News quotes a Ching Chang, former Taiwan naval officer who now is a fellow at Taiwan’s ROC Society for Strategic Studies

PLAN Aircraft carrier Liaoning ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) Source- The Diplomat Author- Shannon Tiezzi A local government inadvertently confirmed that China is building a second aircraft carrier on Sunday, sparking a wave of media analysis of China’s maritime ambitions. According to Reuters, the government of Changzhou, a city in Jiangsu province, posted on its microblog that a Changzhou-based power cable manufacturer had been awarded a deal to supply products for China’s new carrier. The reports were also carried by a local newspaper before being scrubbed. China currently operates one aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, the pride of China’s navy (which last year was even the subject of musical paeans). Yet the Liaoning was not domestically produced – the carrier is a refitted version of Ukraine’s Varyag, as South China Morning Post described in great detail in a recent series. The goal all along has been for China to use the Liaoning as a training platform, a

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Author- Indian Navy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Jack Detsch On Monday, just hours after Air Force One touched down in India, the secret service quickly shuttled a jet-lagged President Obama to New Delhi’s Rajpath or “King’s Way.” There, Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi watched India’s finest military hardware parade through the heart of the city. The spectacle probably did not impress Obama, who is accustomed to making speeches atop enormous aircraft carriers. But the timing of his trip is not an accident. He arrived on the eve of the 66th anniversary of the signing of India’s constitution, days after criticizing China in his State of the Union address. “As we speak, China wants to write the rules for the world’s fastest-growing region,” Obama told Congress last Tuesday. “Why would we let that happen?” It’s not the first time the president has taunted China to score political points. But that gesture, and Obama’s decision

Chinese Carrier Liaoning ( Image credits- In the image) Source- The Diplomat Author- Robert Farley Over the past few days, the fascinating story of China’s acquisition of the Ukrainian carrier Varyag has emerged in the South China Morning Post. We should take the story with grain of salt; as with many military procurement decisions, we likely won’t have the full story for a very long time. Nevertheless, the narrative illuminates the problems and conflicts associated with purchasing the carrier, getting it to China, and convincing the Chinese government that acquiring the ship was at all worthwhile. China’s acquisition of Varyag was contingent on a series of often improbable events. How would China’s carrier program have worked out differently if Ukraine has rejected the purchase, or the Turks had refused transit of the ship, or if the hulk had sunk along the way (a real possibility at the time)? One takeaway from the series, affirming a long-term impression of Chi

PLAN ship Hongzehu ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Author- United States DOD) Source- The Diplomat Author- Christopher D.Yung In a November 8 column, U.S. Naval War College Professor James R. Holmes (aka the Naval Diplomat) criticized a new National Defense University (NDU) report on Chinese overseas basing that I and a team of analysts published in October 2014. Holmes mischaracterizes the report’s findings as concluding “there’s little reason to expect China to seek bases in the Indian Ocean” and criticizes it for “linear thinking” and “straight-line analysis.” In fact, the report argues that China’s expanding global interests will generate increased demands for out-of-area naval operations and predicts that China is likely to establish at least one “dual-use” civilian/military base to provide logistics support for increased People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operations. The report also concludes that the so-called “string of pearls” model of covert access to com

United States Tomahawk Missile ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ United States DOD) Source- The National Interest Author- Zachary Keck A number of media outlets have reported in recent days that China has deployed a new missile defense system on many of its ships that has a 90 percent success rate against hypersonic missiles. The same reports also unwittingly highlight that this assertion is false. All the reports appear to originate from a story the Taiwan-based Want China Times carried last month. Citing a report in its “Chinese-language sister paper Want Daily,” which itself cited a story by an unnamed Russian media outlet, Want China Times reported last month that “that China's latest indigenous Type 1130 close-in weapon system can fire 10,000 rounds per minute and destroy 90% of hypersonic missiles traveling at a speed four times the speed of sound.” The Want China Times report has been picked up by numerous news outlets since— either directly or indire

PLAN Type 96 Class SSBN ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Author- In the Picture) Source- Want China Times China's new Type 096 Tang-class ballistic missile submarine, thought to be in development, may become a serious threat to the United States in the Western Pacific, as it is estimated to be able to carry 24 missiles according to Russian Military Analyst based in Moscow. An article titled China's Nuclear Potential published on Dec. 30 said that it will still takes decades for China to establish sufficient second strike capability. However, China takes much less time to develop its nuclear forces than most Western observers had previously thought. Currently, the People's Liberation Army Air Force still relies on H-6K bombers and Q-5 attackers to conduct nuclear strikes. While Q-5 attackers have been slowly replaced by the more advanced JH-7A, China is unlikely to develop a new stealth bomber to take H-6K's place in the near future, the article sai