Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Image credits- VOA Source- The Diplomat  Author- David Gitter As many have written about recently, China is facing many difficulties as it seeks to enforce its territorial claims over vast areas of East Asia, including the South and East China Seas and Taiwan. In reality, all of these struggles reflect China’s longstanding desire to have the country’s periphery free from powers that have the potential to threaten it. What is new, however, is Beijing’s bold and seemingly impatient strategy to secure its periphery at the considerable expense of its neighbors. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China has shown an increased tolerance for regional tensions as it vies for domination on all fronts simultaneously. This may in part be the outward reflection of Xi’s “strongman” personality, which requires near-total control domestically. More likely, China’s dash for dominance reflects a leadership consensus that the country must quickly exploit Beijing’s self-conceptualized period

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Jan Reurink Source- The Diplomat Author- Justin Cheung It is no secret that Tibetan independence movements have long drawn the ire of Chinese authorities. Alongside heightened rhetoric in recent years over Tibetan unrest and the growing publicity of riots and self-immolations, China has sought to augment its capacity for crackdown in the restive province. The swiftness of Chinese response to previous swells of separatist sentiment is best illustrated in the 2008 Tibetan unrest. During that time, the BBC reported that within days of the start of anti-government riots, over 400 troop carriers of the People’s Armed Police were mobilized. Ultimately, the speed with which the Chinese government was able to ferry troops into sites of unrest was a crucial factor in quelling the upheaval. In more recent times, China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) policy – Xi Jinping’s plan to expand the reach of Chinese trade routes to Europe through a la

Arihant Class SSBN ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / GAGAN@BRF) Source- The Diplomat Author- Ankit Panda Sartaj Aziz, adviser to Pakistan’s prime minister on foreign affairs, presented an interesting proposal to the Pakistani Senate on Thursday. He said that he would consider having Pakistan introduce a resolution at the United Nations that would urge the body to declare the Indian Ocean a “nuclear free zone.” Leaving aside the fact that the United Nations isn’t in the business of declaring nuclear weapon free zones, Aziz’s comments reflect increasing anxieties in Pakistan about India’s burgeoning sea-based nuclear deterrent. With the first of Arihant-class of domestically designed ballistic missile submarines rolling out and testing underway of Delhi’s K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles ongoing, Delhi is coming closer to operationalizing its sea-based deterrent. (The K-4 has been test launched from the Arihant‘s on-board silos, as I discussed last month.)

Chinese J-11 ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / USN) Source- The Diplomat Author- Robert Farley Earlier this week I wrote about the relative sizes of the U.S. and Chinese air forces, and how China needs to manage its anti-air “fortifications” in order to close the gap with the United States.  However, it’s worth a look to see how differently the major air forces of the Asia-Pacific have structured themselves. Let’s take the United States as a baseline (although the U.S. arrangement is one of the most unusual in the world, most people are familiar with the basic dynamics). As of December 2015, the United States operated 13,655 aircraft; 5,062 in the Air Force, 4,759 in the Army, 1,249 in the Marine Corps, and 2,585 in the Navy. Between the USAF, USMC, and USN, the United States flies 2,838 combat aircraft (fighters, bombers, and attack aircraft), constituting 21 percent of the total fleet. The rest of the U.S. air forces consist of helicopters and a wide array of su

Image credits- Indian Navy Source- The Diplomat Author- Pushan Das Last week, India’s first conventional submarine in over a decade and a half —the INS Kalvari—finally began sea trials, amid reports of Indo-U.S. cooperation in tracking Chinese submarine activity in the region. As sightings of Chinese submarines become more frequent in the Indian Ocean region, the Indian Navy is looking at innovative ways to gain an edge in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities. Can the Indian Navy effectively counter a modern Chinese submarine force, which is primarily optimized for regional anti-surface warfare missions near major sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean? India’s expenditure on defense acquisition has remained largely static in real terms in recent years, resulting in constraints on not just the navy but the armed forces in general. The defense outlay for fiscal year 2016/17 was INR 2.49 trillion (USD 36.63 billion), but according to IHS Jane’s 360, th

INS Arihant SSBN ( Credits- Indian Navy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Abhijit Singh Last week, the Kalvari, India’s first indigenous stealth submarine’s sea trials outside Mumbai Harbour created considerable excitement in India’s maritime circles. The Kalvari is the first of India’s six submarines based on the Scorpene-class being built under the much-delayed Project 75. Its sail-around was widely seen as an important step forward in meeting the September 2016 target for the submarine’s commissioning. Despite the absence of its “primary weapon” – the heavyweight “Black-Shark” torpedoes – the Kalvari’s presence in the open seas emphasized India’s efforts at rejuvenating its indigenous submarine production program. While the project has faced long delays, Indian naval technicians and project managers have worked tirelessly to meet construction deadlines. The Kalvari’s appearance in the open seas last week then created new hope for India’s submarine ambitions. The cheery

Agni Missile ( Credits- Wikimedia Commons / Antônio Milena (ABr)) Source- The Diplomat Author- Robert Farley Do states acquire weapons because of security needs or out of a desire for prestige? Analysts have asked this question about a wide range of weapons, including advanced fighter jets, nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, battleships, and (perhaps most importantly) nuclear weapons. On the prestige side, nuclear weapons convey modernity, power, and a spot in the “room where it happens”–particularly prestigious because the room only holds a few countries. On the security side, nuclear weapons can provide a last ditch alternative against a superior foe. The question of weapons and prestige has bedeviled political scientists and the answer seems to be: “Both, but more of one or the other under particular circumstances.” Recent work by Jayita Sarkar (reviewed by Sumit Ganguly) helps contribute to this question, at least in the context of India’s pursuit of nuclear wea

Image credits- ASEAN Source- The Diplomat Author- Ahmad Rashid Malik Meeting with envoys from the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) (namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, and Myanmar) in Aiwan-e-Sadr on April 19, Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain expressed his desire to boost relations with ASEAN. He specifically mentioned Pakistan’s intention to seek a Full Dialogue Partnership (FDP) with the organization, which aims at strengthening political, trade, and economic ties with ASEAN member states. He admitted that Pakistan’s trade with ASEAN is well below its potential. ASEAN is a promising area for trade, investment, and connectivity. In terms of trade potential, ASEAN is the seventh largest trading area in the world. The combined GDP of the ten ASEAN nations is over $2.4 trillion. It is a hub for regional trade and manufacturing activities and is emerging as one of the fastest growing consumer markets in the world. As the region see

PLAN Sailors ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Andrew Poulin China’s Navy is undergoing a transformation that will have ramifications for years to come. Significant military investments and critical changes in maritime strategy have enabled a dramatic shift from a traditionally brown-water force to a blue-water navy. As a result, China’s naval ships are increasingly serving outside of their regional waters, taking part in more humanitarian and international security operations, and seeking and gaining additional access to ports throughout the world. China’s Navy is going blue. This transformation did not happen overnight. Although the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was founded in 1927, it was not until September 1950 that the PLA Navy (PLAN) was formally established. From the PLAN’s founding through the end of the 1970s, their primary mission was inshore defense. At the time, this helped China focus internally on lay

Image credits- Indian navy Source- The Diplomat Author- Franz Stefan- Gady India and the United States may sign an agreement for the coproduction of Lockheed Martin F-16V and Boeing F/A-18 fighter aircraft, according to Indian and U.S. defense officials. The deal is likely to involve technological transfers and the local production of U.S. fighter jets in India to meet Indian Prime Minister’s Narendra Modi’s so-called Make in India Initiative. “Members of my team, and industry, are right now, as we are here in New York, in India looking at the potential coproduction of fighter aircraft,” U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said during a speech at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations prior to departing on a three-day visit to India. “I have no doubt that in the coming years, the United States and India will embark on a landmark co-production agreement that will bring our two countries closer together and make our militaries stronger, “Carter added. Senior