Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

F-15 Strike Eagle( Image courtesy-Wikimedia commons) How does the unthinkable happen? As we wind our way to the 100th anniversary of the events that culminated in  ‪#‎ World‬  #War I, the question of unexpected wars looms large. What series of events could lead to war in East Asia, and how would that war play out? The United States and  ‪#‎ China‬  are inextricably locked in the  ‪#‎ Pacific‬  Rim’s system of international trade. Some argue that this makes war impossible, but then while some believed World War I inevitable, but others similarly thought it impossible. In this article I concentrate less on the operational and tactical details of a ‪#‎ US‬ -#China #war, and more on the strategic objectives of the major combatants before, during, and after the conflict. A war between the United States and #China would transform some aspects of the geopolitics of  ‪#‎ East‬   ‪#‎ Asia‬ , but would also leave many crucial factors unchanged. Tragically, a conflict between China

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi On May 26 and 27, the new Indian government played host to heads of state from seven South Asian countries and the prime minister of Mauritius. The leaders were in Delhi to attend Narendra Modi’s swearing in as India’s 15th prime minister. High on atmospherics but understandably low on substance, these meetings, including the most  high profile  one with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, are nevertheless seen as the proof of the new government’s intention to engage with its immediate neighbors first, to ensure peace and stability in the region. It was important for Narendra Modi to start off on a positive note with neighbors since he is seen somewhat of a hardliner on security and foreign policy issues and his rise, predicted much before the election results were out, had created apprehension if not outright insecurity in the neighborhood. By inviting all heads of states to his inauguration Modi not only disarmed them but also signale

ShinMaywa US-2 ( Image credits-Wikimedia commons/Author- まも) A pending deal involving purchase of 15 ShinMaywa US-2i Amphibious and Rescue (SAR) aircraft for $1.65 billion is likely to be sealed when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Japan shortly.MoD sources said in march, a delegation of senior officials, including from the Navy, visited the facilities where the amphibious aircraft is being produced. They also sought to iron out issues related to modifications that would allow Japan to export the aircraft to India without violating its self-imposed defence export restrictions. A friend-or-foe identification system will be removed from the aircraft, a defence official said. Both countries had, at that time, also discussed the possibility of India being permitted to assemble the aircraft indigenously, giving it access to Japanese military technology. The deal was put on hold because of general election in India. "The deal is significant for a variety of reasons. On

INS Vikramaditya ( Image courtesy-Wikimedia commons/Author) Prime Minister Nrendra Modi’s first visit to a military establishment will be a grand show of national power as he is set to visit the newly-acquired INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier next weekend. This would be the first visit of a national leader to the largest and most powerful warship of the Indian Navy that made its journey from Russia in December, and would also be the first public display of the aircraft carrier’s capabilities. Sources said the PM has expressed a desire to visit the ship and the Navy is making arrangements for him to embark with a team over the weekend of June 14-15. During the visit, Modi will be shown the operational capabilities of the carrier, including take-offs and landings by the MiG 29 K fighters on the ship.While the final details are being worked out, Modi is expected to be on the warship off the western coast for a few hours. The INS Vikramaditya is the most powerful symbol of India’s mi

North Korea launching missile ( Image courtesy- AP/KCNA) Pyongyang’s saber-rattling of late, coupled with multiple rocket engine tests and increased activity at the regime’s Pungyung-ri nuclear test site, have led many in Washington and Seoul to believe that the DPRK is  planning to conduct its fourth nuclear test  and/or another long-range missile test to enhance the credibility of its nuclear deterrent. But while public attention is once again on the idea of a North Korean nuclear-tipped ICBM that could threaten the continental United States, the strategic ground is shifting. Over the last nine to eight months the military balance on the Peninsula has tripped dramatically in favor of the U.S.-ROK alliance in terms of projecting land, sea and air superiority. In October 2013 for instance, the alliance introduced the concept of tailored “ tit-for-tat ” deterrence, significantly enhancing Seoul’s active defense posture and according to South Korean Minister of Defense Kim Kwa

Image courtesy- Wikimedia Commons/ Author Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu, a professor at China’s National Defense University,  said recently  that “the Americans are making very, very important strategic mistakes right now” in their approach to China. His comments followed a strong statement by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, who stated that “China has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea.” However, it is quite likely that this time it is China that is making a grave strategic mistake. The way China is proceeding may well allow it to win several more bouts – of the rather small kind it did when it  positioned one oil rig in contested waters  next to Vietnam; grabbing one more shoal like it did in the Philippines, or even having more fishing and coast guard boats dance around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Moreover, China is likely to be correct in assuming that the United States, tired from two long and costly wars, will not go to war o