Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Source- The Diplomat Author- Walter C. Clemens Jr The fledgling science of complexity, developed at the Santa Fe Institute and elsewhere, argues that societal fitness cannot develop under a heavy hand or the opposite extreme, anarchy. Top-down rule cannot generate a fit society primed to cope with the complex challenges of modern life. Instead, societal fitness emerges from self-organization close to the edge of chaos. Self-organized crowds in Hong Kong have demanded more self-organization; similar groups in Russia have turned against Putin and urged him to vacate Ukraine. Repression can work for a time but tends to devour its makers. Complexity science helps us understand which of two paths will unfold for China and Russia. Retracing their Stalinist heritage, the first course tightens dictatorship at home, crushes independence in borderlands, and expands abroad. The second path leads to the breakdown of centralized controls at home and a retreat from imperial expansion

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons Source- The National Interest Author- Scott Cheney-Peters When President Obama heads to Beijing next month for a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), it will be an opportunity to take stock of the “rebalance”: to measure its impact on the region and the success of its objectives. Three years after Obama first announced the strategic shift in American military, economic and diplomatic resources (“the Pivot”) in 2011, the results are something of a mixed bag. The United States has enhanced military partnerships while outlining plans for bolstering its military presence in the region, yet on the economic front, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks drag on with tenuous prospects. Diplomatically, the Pew Research Center on one hand reports a plurality of respondents in every Asian country polled except Pakistan, Malaysia and China view the United States as its greatest ally. On the other hand, pluralities in these three are

Image credits- Flickr/ United States navy Official Page Source- The Diplomat Author- Clint Richards Both Japanese and U.S. officials are leaking key pieces of information regarding the expected update to their defense cooperation guidelines, which was set to be announced by the end of this year. After releasing an interim report two weeks ago to outline the progress both sides have made so far, on Tuesday the allies said they are currently negotiating a meeting of their defense chiefs sometime next month. U.S. Secretary of State Chuck Hagel and his Japanese counterpart Akinori Eto will seek to hold a sideline meeting during the ASEAN defense minister’s summit on November 18 and 19, where authorities announced the two will discuss accelerating the revision process. Aside from their cooperation guidelines, the two are likely to also reaffirm the controversial plan to move the U.S. Marine Corps’ Futenma Air Station to a its new location of Henoko on the island of Okinawa. Ja

Ex Varyag ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author) Source- The Diplomat Author- James R. Homes Reports of Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning’s death — or debilitating wounds — are greatly exaggerated. The flattop suffered some sort of steam leak that prompted her crew to stop at sea and conduct repairs before resuming operations. The news comes from Robert Beckhusen of War Is Boring, who relays a Sina.com story that Liaoning suffered a “steam explosion” following “a leak in ‘the machine oven compartment to the water pipes.’” Beckhusen denies that PLA Navy leaders will decommission the flattop because of mechanical problems. (By raising the possibility, though, he seems to imply they might.) He does speculate that the accident will force the navy to relegate her to training duty. Would an engineering casualty represent a setback unseen in the annals of naval history? Hardly. All sea services have been there, done that, and will likely find themselves there again.

Sukhoi FGFA ( Image source- Wikimedia Commons/ Credits- Alex Beltukov)   Source- Russia & India Report Author- Viktor Litovkin Last week the director-general of the Foundation for Advanced Research Andrey Grigoryev told journalists at the Open Innovations Forum that “Russian scholars have already started work on the creation of a sixth generation fighter jet. The new model will be manufactured from composite materials.” “Our task is to lay the groundwork for the creation of a 6th generation fighter jet. Such projects are also now being considered. They are primarily associated with materials and engines,” Grigoryev added. Number Six’s new look Many specialists from the aircraft industry or Russian Air Force have made repeated comments about the sixth generation fighter jet. They may be found in the statements of the UAC (United Aircraft Corporation) president Mikhail Pogosyan, and the remarks of the director of the UAC’s Military Aviation Programs Direct

United States sea based X band radar Source- The Diplomat Author- Clint Richards Over the past week China has criticized the U.S. for deploying new missile defense radar and for considering the deployment of advanced missile defense systems in Northeast Asia. While both of these deployments can ostensibly be considered necessary in light of continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of yet another nuclear test from North Korea, their applicability toward Beijing is obvious. While China can do little to directly prevent their deployment, the moves highlight China’s growing military presence in the East China Sea, and the increasing friction encountered by U.S. and Japanese forces in the region. China reacted last week for the first time to Washington’s proposed deployment of its Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles to South Korea. The chief envoy to the six-party talks for China, Xu Bu, said the U.S. attempts to “strengthen its military presence

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author- Menendj Source- The Diplomat Author- Arif Rafiq In an audio statement released last week, the former Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman Shahidullah Shahid announced that he and five other commanders from the terror group have given the bay’ah (oath of allegiance) to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-styled “caliph” of the group that describes itself as the Islamic State (IS), and is also known as ISIS and ISIL. This is the first public defection of commanders from the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban groups to IS. Their defection portends further divisions within Pakistan’s jihadist community, which has rapidly splintered since the killing of the TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud last fall in a U.S. drone strike. These divisions could result in heightened violence between anti-state jihadist groups in Pakistan. But Pakistan is also likely to see a rise in both sectarian and overall violence. Down the road, there is a risk that Pak

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INS Trikand (F51) ( Image source- Wikimedia Commons/ United States Navy) Source- Russia & India Report Russia offered India three additional Project 11356 or Talwar class frigates, after New Delhi made a formal request, Vladimir Spiridopulo, the general director working on this project at the Northern Design Bureau, said.  Negotiations have been taking place since this spring, TASS said. Russia supplied India with two sets of three Project 11356 frigates, with the last one being the INS Trikand. “Negotiations on the third set of three frigates have been taking place with the Indian side since this spring. India sent us a request and we presented a proposal in response,” Spiridopulo said. “I cannot talk about all the details of the third set of three frigates,” he added. Spiridopulo also would not specify which shipyard might be given the order – the first three ships were built in the Baltic Shipyards of St. Petersburg, and the second set in Kaliningrad’s Yant

Image credits- Flickr/ Narendra Modi Official Source- The Diplomat Author- Tridivesh Singh Maini and Yasser Latif Hamdani The recent violence along the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan in Kashmir threatens confrontation yet again between the two nuclear armed neighbors. It also underscores the need to rescue the fragile Track II process from irrelevance, because ultimately it is through genuine people-to-people exchange that long-term peace between the two nations is possible. While visiting the other country and forging relationships is a gargantuan task for the average Indian and Pakistani, given the nature of the visa regimes on both sides, there are a few groups of individuals who manage to cross the borders quite frequently: select businessmen, members of civil society, academics, and other privileged individuals. Then there are Track II dialogues which bring together individuals from various professional backgrounds: politicians, retired di