Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ United States Navy Source- The Diplomat Author-  Koh Swee Lean Collin and  Darshana M. Baruah Tensions in Asia are rising over  unresolved territorial disputes and sovereignty issues . In contrast to the immediate post-Cold War period, recent tensions are characterized by the evident proclivity of some, if not all, parties towards the threat or use of limited force. As a much preferred tool of statecraft, maritime platforms tend to be the archetypical instrument for this sort of diplomacy. The spike in maritime encounters in recent years have largely involved coastguard-type forces in disputed waters of the East and South China Seas. More recently, though, regular naval ships have begun to appear on the scene. Not only do heavily armed warships cast an ominous shadow over the coastguard vessels operating on the frontlines, at times they become involved, for instance by directing fire control radar at opposing military assets in the

BRICS heads of State ( Image credits- Flickr/ The Presidency of South Africa) Source- The Diplomat Author- Anthony Fensom China’s citizens may have celebrated “ APEC blue ” skies at the recent Beijing summit. But amid the nation’s recent diplomatic triumphs, analysts suggest China could still be eclipsed by India as Beijing confronts growing environmental and structural challenges. Speaking at Brisbane’s recent G20 Leaders’ Summit, China’s Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said the world’s second-biggest economy was undergoing “a period of pain” as it tackled structural problems threatening its growth targets. “We do have problems that have been accumulated over time…the first is the overcapacity of our economy, second is the problem of shadow banking, and the third main problem is debt accumulated over time by local Chinese governments,” he said. Zhu said the world economy “faces greater downward risks,” with the Chinese economy also adjusting to a “new normal” of slow

Image credits- Shutter Stock/ Maxim Tupikov Source- The diplomat Author- Clint Richards North Korea is taking its typical approach to international condemnation, by both lashing out at the West (primarily the U.S.) and reaching out to whichever ally is most readily available (Russia in this instance). It is an old game that has relatively few surprises left, as ballistic missile tests have become old news, and even its nuclear program has had three tests without triggering any kind of military response. While it may seem that Pyongyang has boxed itself into a corner with very few options available, the regime’s ability to sustain itself in spite of near total isolation is its ultimate trump card, as nobody seems have to the ability or willingness to force North Korea’s leadership to face the accusations brought against it. This latest round of confrontation began on Tuesday with the passage of a UN draft resolution, which recommended that the International Criminal Co

Mi-35 ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) Source- The Diplomat Author- Ankit Panda Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Pakistan for a day-long visit on Thursday. During his visit to Islamabad, Shoigu met Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the two addressed several issues related to security and defense cooperation between Russia and Pakistan. The two countries will sign an important memorandum of understanding on defense cooperation that will form the foundation of their growing defense partnership. Although Russia is a major arms exporter to Pakistan’s rival India, it is looking to shore up its involvement in Pakistan amid that country’s growing appetite for Russian hardware. Most recently, Pakistan concluded a deal to purchased MI-35 Hind helicopters from Russia. According to Dawn, Russia’s decision to court Pakistan as a defense customer was in part spurred by growing ties between the United States and India. Although Russia has been major militar

Source- The National Interest Author- Andy Morimoto The idea that China cannot rise peacefully has become something of an international-relations truism. The story here is simple: as China’s economy grows, its military will follow, and just as other great powers have used force to achieve their foreign-policy goals, so, too, will China. Yet while much ink has been spilled to explore the security implications of China’s rise, relatively few attempts have been made to examine the potential effects of a sudden and prolonged economic downturn. This might be about to change. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, China’s growth will decline sharply in the coming decade, from 7.7 percent in 2013 to 3.9 percent between 2020 and 2025. Some analysts are more pessimistic, projecting future growth rates as low as 1.6 or 1.7 percent. (To put these numbers in perspective, China grew at an average annual rate of 10.2 percent from 1980 to 2011.) These trends have led some at th

Sikkim ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Flickr/ Steve Evans) Source- The Diplomat Author- Mukesh Rawat Ever since the days of Jawaharlal Nehru, representation has been among the gravest and most persistent issues confronting India’s Northeast. It is a tragedy that this part of the country – a land of mesmerizing beauty, a rich cultural legacy, and the diversity that India so loves – has not been able to win sympathy among the ruling elites in New Delhi in the six decades since Independence. Instead, the people of Northeast India have largely been seen as separatists. Even today, the perception remains that the region is somehow antithetical to Indian democracy, a perception that has often been exploited for political purposes. True, secession was a serious issue in the early days following Independence, giving rising to scores of outfits such as the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA). But while insurgency activit

Indian Prime Minister with his Australian Counterpart ( Image credits- Narendra Modi Official) Source- The Sydney Morning Herald Australia and India have entered a new era of security and military co-operation based on shared values and aimed at defending a rules-based international order. The Indian and Australian governments have now confirmed a Fairfax report this morning that prime ministers Narendra Modi and Tony Abbott quietly signed a sensitive and potentially transformative new framework agreement.  The confirmation came after China's President Xi Jinping had flown from Canberra to Tasmania.  "They have decided to establish the Framework for Security Cooperation to reflect the deepening and expanding security and defence engagement between India and Australia, and to intensify co-operation and consultation between Australia and India in areas of mutual interest," said India's Ministry of External Affairs, on its website. The framework

Indian Prime Minister at Australia ( Image credits- Author/ Internet image) Source- The Diplomat Author- Abhijit Singh There was a palpable excitement in India when Prime Minister Narendra Modi jetted off to attend the G-20 summit at Brisbane. This was partly because of the announcement that Modi would be embarking on a bilateral tour of Australia at the completion of the meeting of world leaders, and that he would be addressing the Indian diaspora in Sydney tomorrow, in what was a much anticipated recreation of the Madison Square Garden moment in New York two months ago. This time, Modi is expected to speak to a crowd of around 20,000 people. Engaging with the Indian expatriate community is, indeed, fast becoming Modi’s signature move on his tours abroad. There is nothing quite as effective as mass fervor in conveying political strength and India’s charismatic premier realizes its inherent potential. From a foreign policy and regional security perspective, however, i

Source- The Diplomat Author- Jongsoo Lee As Germany celebrated the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Western press paid attention to the process that culminated in this momentous but unexpected event on the night of November 9, 1989. Lessons from this German experience have policy implications for the other Iron Curtain that still stands today, dividing the Korean peninsula. Although many factors contributed to the collapse of the Wall, the following seems to be particularly instructive for the present Korean standoff: First is the fact that the fall of the Wall could not have taken place without far-reaching changes in the Soviet Union, the main sponsor of the East German regime and its security guarantor. A key aspect of Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms was the Soviet leader’s policy of eschewing the use of force and respecting the popular will of the masses in the Soviet satellite countries. This respect for the fundamental human rights and free wil

RQ170- Sentinel ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons/ Author-Truth Dowser Source- The National Interest Author- Dave Majumdar Sources familiar with the Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel unmanned reconnaissance aircraft tell the National Interest that Iran’s copy of the drone is probably a fake. Iran’s claims that it built a 60 percent scale prototype of an unmanned combat aircraft reverse engineered from a RQ-170 that crashed over that country in December 2011. Iran claims that it downed the aircraft via a cyberattack while at least one U.S. official said that Tehran’s account might not be entirely inaccurate. Earlier in the week, Iranian state television released a video that allegedly shows the Sentinel knock-off in the air. An aerospace engineer familiar with the RQ-170 said that the Iranian machine is most likely not a prototype, but something more akin to a remote controlled toy, given what is shown in the video footage. The original U.S.-made RQ-170 was not a small aircr