Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Chinese Aircraft Carrier Liaoning ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) Source- Eurasia Review Author- D. S Rajan / SAAG It is a known fact that the first aircraft carrier base of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is located at Dalian, in Liaoning province; the carrier ‘Liaoning’ was commissioned into China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy on September 25, 2012. Open information emanating from China now confirms the completion of construction of a second aircraft carrier base at Sanya, off Hainan Island. These events need examination from a broader perspective as they have potentials to generate questions of geo-political importance as in the following – how to contextualize the events in terms of changes happening in China’s naval strategy? What could be the likely implications of such changes for the military situation in the Asia- Pacific region which remains affected by an acute territorial contest between China and other nations in South and East China seas

Credits- Internet image, author Source- The Diplomat Author- Joy Mitra In geopolitics, strategic realities can change with surprising speed, and even before countries realize it decisive shifts occur that shape the future for the years to come. That seems to be the case with traditional Cold War rivals Russia and Pakistan, which have of late seen a gradual warming of ties. Traditionally an ally of India and hitherto supportive of India’s stance on Kashmir, Russia has shown clear signs of cozying up to Pakistan. Having earlier lifted its self-imposed arms embargo on Pakistan, in November 2014 Russia signed a landmark “military cooperation” agreement with Pakistan, which spoke about “exchanging information on politico-military issues, strengthening collaboration in the defense and counter-terrorism sectors, sharing similar views on developments in Afghanistan and doing business with each other.” There have been reports that Pakistan may purchase Mi-35 combat helicopters

Image credits- United Nations Source- The Diplomat Authors- Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan and Arka Biswas The nuclear non-proliferation order is clearly in trouble. The failure of the recently concluded NPT Review Conference (RevCon) over issues of nuclear disarmament and the Middle East Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (MENWFZ) highlighted the challenges the international community faces. India, as always, did not participate in the RevCon, but India has an important stake in the survival of the regime. Equally, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) needs India more than ever, not only because of India’s strong ideational and policy support for non-proliferation but also its increasing stature in global affairs. The differences at the RevCon were stark. Although NPT members eventually agreed to a text for the outcome document, the month-long review conference saw heated debate on how to ban nuclear weapons and establish a world free of nuclear weapons.

Japanese P3C Orion ( Source- Wikimedia Commons / Author- United States Navy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Justin Chock Recent Japanese reports depict China in an unusually threatening light: Japan’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) rigorously analyzed Chinese assertive actions in the 2015 Annual White Paper after earlier rejections by Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party for being “too soft on China.” Japan then released an East China Sea (ECS) Unilateral Development Report and even a MOD South China Sea (SCS) Report highlighting the threat of China’s assertive unilateral actions. But as The Diplomat’s Ankit Panda has noted, the Chinese ECS structures are not much of a threat, and the SCS report focuses 15 of 16 pages on China’s destabilizing effects without providing new facts or data (even the red-letter “danger” highlights are reserved for Chinese actions). Instead, these reports seem to be more demonstrative than alarming, which begs the question of why Japan would depict Ch

Image credits- Narendra Modi Official Source- The Diplomat Author- Sameer Patil On the 68th year of India’s independence, a new security success is emerging on the country’s eastern flank. The security relationship with India’s neighbors, excluding Pakistan, has begun to improve dramatically, thanks to a series of agreements, initiatives and interventions over the last year. These promise an era of stability in a region that has always been predisposed to peace. The recent developments related to the Naga peace accord, the withdrawal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) from Tripura and the activation of India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) have resolved sore issues dating back to 1947. The intervention in Myanmar to flush out groups of northeastern insurgents will bring normalcy to the contiguous borders of both states, so important for cross-border trade. Signing the road connectivity agreement between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN)

Source- Wikimedia Commons / Author- JesseW900 Source- The National Interest Author- Gordon G. Chang On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the Chinese central bank, reversed course and set the renminbi on an upward path. That followed three straight days of devaluation that shook global stock, currency, and commodity markets, sending them downward. Friday’s reversal looks responsible. Nonetheless, the PBOC’s actions last week show policy disarray in the Chinese capital. The net result is that Beijing rattled the world, ruined its reputation for stable management, and did almost nothing to help China’s faltering economy. The daily devaluations follow months of government statements that the central bank would keep the currency stable. Every trading morning, 15 minutes before the 9:30 opening bell, central bank officials announce the day’s reference rate against the U.S. dollar. The renminbi, informally known as the yuan, is then allowed to rise or fall 2

Chinese Yuan coin ( Source- Wikimedia Commons / Author- Liamjiao) Source- The National Interest Author- Samuel Rines In the late 20th century and the first decade of the 21st, Alan Greenspan led a Fed that—in retrospect—kept monetary policy loose for an exceedingly long period of time. Inflation was tame, and wage pressures were nonexistent due to the acceleration of global competition for jobs, and the relocation of American manufacturing jobs to China. Seeing none of the typical indicators of an overheated economy, low interest rates seemed a reasonable means to spur job creation and spark some wage inflation. The end result was a housing bubble. And housing created the type of low or noncontestable jobs that were impossible to find in other sectors of the economy. Housing construction jobs were easy transitions from the manufacturing floor, and they could not be taken offshore easily—they were China proof. But the housing bubble burst in spectacular fashion. The in

      Wishing all my brothers and sisters of this great country a very Happy Independence day

USAF F-22 Raptor ( Source- Wikimedia Commons / Credits- USAF) Source- The National Interest Author- James Hasik The idea hasn’t gotten beyond the Duffel Blog and this column, but what if the USAF had long ago dropped the F-35A? As I noted last month, had the Pentagon foregone developing a wholly new fighter jet, the $100 billion it has spent to date on the F-35 project would have bought about 740 Eurofighter Typhoons. Euro-anything, of course, is hardly the USAF’s style, and the War Department hasn’t bought a French fighter since 1918. Doing so today is about as likely as Rob Farley getting a “Friend of the Air Force” award from General Welsh. So what else might the USAF have done? As a first-order vignette in this alternative history, let’s assume that former Defense Secretary Robert Gates wouldn’t have ended the F-22 program in 2009 at 187 aircraft. That said, the answer was never just a lot more F-22s. The first problem is procurement and operating costs. The US

USS Gerald R. Ford class Aircraft Carrier ( Source- Wikimedia Commons / Credits- US Navy) Source- The National Interest Author- Zachary Keck Despite the proliferation of precision-guided ballistic and cruise missiles, aircraft carriers are far from obsolete. That was the message Vice Admiral Mike Shoemaker, commander of Naval Air Forces, sought to deliver this week. Writing in a commentary piece on DOD Buzz, Shoemaker argued that: “Today, more than ever, U.S. national interests require the speed, endurance, flexibility and autonomous nature of the U.S. Navy’s nuclear powered aircraft carrier, which deploys, operates and is prepared to fight as part of a Carrier Strike Group (CSG).” He added: “Operationally, the combined strength of the CSG remains vastly greater than the sum of its parts. As a complex, joint force multiplier, with command and control and organic logistical capabilities, there exists no comparable way to quickly generate the effects crucial to