Manoj Ambat's Blog dealing with Defence, Foreign Affairs, Strategic Affairs and Politics

Nagasaki bomb ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Charles Levy) Source- The Diplomat Author- Ankit Panda On Monday, a top Pakistani official confirmed what had long been suspected by the arms control community: Pakistan will use low-yield nuclear weapons in responding to hypothetical Indian incursions into its territory. According to Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhary, Pakistan is formalizing it’s plans to use these low-yield nuclear bombs to forestall the advance of Indian troops under New Delhi’s “Cold Start” doctrine. Chaudhary’s statement marks the first time Pakistani officials have acknowledged their intent to use low-yield, or so-called “tactical,” nuclear weapons in a potential future conflict with India. India does not currently operate or plan to develop tactical nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s research and development efforts into tactical nuclear weapons have been an open secret for some time. Khalid Kidwai, the longest serving head of Pakistan’s Str

USS Freedom ( Image source- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- The National Interest Author- Mercedes Page Last week’s revelation that the Pentagon had been briefing Asian allies that U.S. Navy warships would soon conduct freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea has ramped up tensions in the world’s most hotly contested body of water. Expected to take place within the next few days, the patrols would see U.S. naval ships come within 12 nautical miles of at least one of China’s controversial features in the South China Sea for the first time since 2012. China has responded to the news about the impending patrols by stating that it will “not permit any country to infringe on China’s territorial waters and airspace in the Spratly Islands in the name of ‘protecting freedom of navigation and over flight.’” However on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter, reinforced the U.S.’s more muscular stance in the region, declaring that the U.S. “wi

Shenyang J-31 ( Source- Wikimedia Commons / WC) Source- The National Interest Author- Malcolm Davis Paul Dibb recently wrote on The Strategist/The National Interest that China has long-term systemic problems which will prevent its continued rise to Asian great power status, and that as a “brittle state,” China can’t afford to go to war as the risk of failure is too great. But he ignores China’s strategic culture, its history and national identity, all of which strongly influence its policy choices in Indo–Pacific Asia today and into the future, including any decision to go to war, and which also drive its military modernization process. He then rather unconvincingly characterizes China as an isolated power absent friends. President Xi Jinping promotes the idea of the ‘China Dream’, which is about restoring China’s traditional, and from its perspective, rightful position as the leading or dominant power in Asia. From a domestic perspective, this demands that China cont

USS Woodrow Wilson- Part of the 41 for Freedom SSBNs in service with the USN (Image credits- Wikimedia Commons) Source- The National Interest Author-  Joseph Trevithick A key component of the U.S. doctrine of mutually assured destruction — commonly and appropriately known as MAD — was that American troops would still be able to retaliate if the Soviet Union launched a nuclear attack. But for a time, the Pentagon was seriously worried that its own nuclear missile submarines wouldn’t get those orders in time. In 1968, the Defense Intelligence Agency’s Scientific Advisory Committee found dangerous gaps in the communications network supporting the nation’s so-called Fleet Ballistic Missile boats, or FBMs. The FBM fleet included more than 40 submarines of five different classes all capable of carrying up to 16 Polaris nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, collectively known as the “41 for Freedom.” The agency included the report in a response to a private individual’s Fr

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Customs  Source- The Diplomat Author- David Volodzko In June 2010, plaintiffs representing Gucci America sued Weixing Li, Lijun Xu, Ting Xu, and others for selling fake luxury products online. Last month, Judge Richard J. Sullivan of the Southern District of New York ordered the Bank of China to name any customers who’d sold such products in 2010. Meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker claims she told him: “you can’t keep stealing things.” This was in reference to cybersecurity and intellectual property theft, which is incredibly widespread in China. Have you heard China’s theme song for the 2022 Winter Olympics? Or seen the new sculpture in Xinjiang? Or been to the alpine village in Huairou? Well, they’re all knock-offs, and China has a lot of them. China’s actually pretty good at producing fakes. Not only does it produce them in great quantity (betwe

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / VOA Source- The Diplomat Author-  Joshua Kurlantzick After a decade, in the 2000s, in which China aggressively pursued warmer relations with many Southeast Asian nations, using a combination of diplomacy, aid, and soft power to woo its neighbors, the past five years have seen a significant chill in China-Southeast Asia relations. First, Beijing’s more aggressive pursuit of its claims in the South China Sea led to heightened tensions between China and other claimants—most notably Vietnam and the Philippines, but also increasingly Indonesia, where the armed forces are trying to rapidly modernize Jakarta’s naval capacity in part out of fear of China’s actions in the South China Sea. However, even as China alienated countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, it had until recently maintained relatively warm relations with several of the other leading Southeast Asian states, including Thailand, Myanmar, and Malaysia. These countries were

Chengdu J-20 fighter ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / Alexandr Chechin) Source- National Interest Author- Kyle Mizokami As tensions between China and Japan have increased, there have been more encounters between Chinese and Japanese military aircraft. People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Su-27s have been spotted near Japanese aircraft in the East China Sea, prompting Japanese F-15s based in Okinawa to scramble. These encounters appear to be the new normal, and may continue for the foreseeable future—indeed, into a time when China’s J-20 “Soaring Dragon” fighter becomes operational. China’s first fifth generation fighter, the J-20 is expected to enter service by the end of the decade. At the same time, Japan is still flying the F-15J Eagle fighter. Although an excellent fighter, Japan’s Ministry of Defense had expected to replace it with the F-22 Raptor by now. Unfortunately for Japan, the now-infamous Obey Amendment passed by the U.S. Congress prohibited

USS Halsey (DDG-97) underway ( Image credits- Wikimedia Commons / United States Navy) Source- National Interest Author- Dave Majumdar While the U.S. Navy will start to build new Flight III Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers equipped with Raytheon’s new AN/SPY-6 Air and Missile Defense Radar next year, the service will eventually have to develop a new surface combatant to replace the vintage DDG-51 and Ticonderoga-class hull-forms. Navy officials expect that such a new Future Surface Combatant (FSC) would enter service in the 2030s—but the Navy has to start planning for those vessels now since construction needs to start around 2028. No one—not even the Navy—knows exactly what those new ships might look like. But we can make certain assumptions even at this early stage. The new ship will need to generate a huge amount of electrical power to run future naval weapons which many predict will include lasers and railguns. It’s also very likely that the FSC will n

Credits- Satellite image Source- The Diplomat Author- Graham Webster The U.S. Navy is reportedly preparing to conduct “freedom of navigation” (FON) operations, sending one or more surface ships within 12 nautical miles (nm) of Chinese-claimed features in the South China Sea. The administration has been pressured to go ahead with this demonstration of U.S. views on conduct at sea, but the terms of the public debate have failed to match the legal and political implications. Though details are scarce, unnamed U.S. and Asian officials told The New York Times U.S. allies were being briefed on the plans, which reportedly involve traveling near one or more of China’s recently constructed or expanded outposts. Daniel Kritenbrink, the new senior director for Asian affairs at the U.S. National Security Council, reportedly told a closed-door meeting the decision to go ahead was already made. Over the past several months, a media narrative had emerged that pitted the Departme

Image credits- Wikimedia Commons Source- National Interest Author- Paul Dibb It’s becoming commonplace to drum up the military threat from China and belittle America’s military capabilities. Much of this commentary reminds me of statements in the mid-1980s that the former Soviet Union was poised to outstrip the U.S. in military power. This isn’t to argue that China is in the final stages of disintegration like the USSR, but it is to assert that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) demonstrates all the brittleness and paper-thin professionalism of a military that has never fought a modern war and whose much-vaunted military equipment has never been tested in combat. With a slowing economy, and with structural economic and social tensions becoming worse rather than better, China is a large but fragile power ruled by a vulnerable party that can’t afford any economic or foreign policy disasters, let alone war with the U.S. Its economy is fundamentally interdependent with