India and the emerging geopolitics of Asia- Pacific

Credits- Flickr / MEA Official image, Government of India

" In International relations, there are no permanent friends nor permanent enemies, but only permanent national interests":-

So they say in international relations. Nothing exemplifies this more than the emerging geopolitics of Asia-Pacific. There is indeed a tectonic  shift in relations and serious realignment taking place as we speak. 

History of Indian Foreign relations

After gaining independence, India chose the path of non alignment with a tilt to the socialistic policies emphasizing left leaning politics. This ensured that India cultivated closer relations with the USSR which for the time payed rich dividends for India. Russia was the chief source from which India procured vital and high tech weapon systems and also the USSR had been instrumental in protecting Indian national interests in international forums like the United Nations. They also helped India at the time of national crisis like the 1971 war. India for it's part was the leading voice of Non alignment which advocated a neutral view and position without taking any sides. But by the end of the cold war and the break up of the Soviet Union and Russia in tatters, India found itself at a cross roads. Series of incidents rewrote the history for India and forced India to take up a new path of liberalization that will see India emerge as an economic power house.

The first realization for India came in the form of the Russian back out from giving India the technology to make cryogenic rocket engines. That was the wake up call for India when it realized that it can no longer trust it's close ally for long that is Russia. This forced a serious rethink within the Indian establishment that paved way for the realization that India cannot solely rely on Russia but needs to spread the wings and  look for other source for technology and capital. Indian economy was in tatters that forced India to go for

Image credits- Flickr /  Narendra Modi Official 

economic liberalization. China had gone down the same path about two decades back and had transformed China to a power house, a lesson that India had watched and learned. India also realized that it had no option but to get close to the United States, a sort of "breaking the ice". There was mutual distrust and acrimony between  the two of the largest democracies in the world. But there was also the silver line in the horizon. It was vastly ignored that India had more of it's citizens in the United States than any other country. That power centre was utilized to the maximum. Indians and those of Indian origin has held important positions in the American society and they were advancing in the American society to the heights that is never seen before. India realized to bank in on this asset and what has emerged is the most powerful lobby in the Capitol hill.  The second driver was the economic integration with the International market. India unleashed it's full potential and what has emerged is an economic power house with America as the largest investor in a emerging power house. 

At this time, India also started having many problems with Russia, chief among them being the difficulty in procurement of spare parts for the weapon systems. India saw a new Russia which bargained for every penny. That bargain sometimes came to the verge of a virtual blackmail. That held true in case of INS Vikramaditya ( Ex carrier Groshkov) for which the Russians squeezed every bit from India. The intended budget went ten times over. India had no other option but to accept the same. But it was the wake up call for India. India realized that it needed to look else where for it's weapon systems and what has emerged is the relations with Israel. Israel has emerged as the source of high end weapon development for India. India  also started procuring weapon systems from the United States. At the same time another country was emerging. That is China. With the miraculous and unprecedented growth of over three decades, China had become the second largest economy in the world. It also emerged as an industrial power house with a vast Industrial complex that could churn out just about anything at half the cost. But China followed the path of a soft power which ensured that it could concentrate on it's economic development even though it retained unjust claims over vast territories of it's neighbours. But some where in 2008, China decided to stop playing nice. It aggressively started following on it's territorial claims, be it in South China sea or East China sea or the India border. They started an unprecedented military buildup leveraging upon their vast industrial base. They also actively supported Pakistan, India's permanent head ache that is a nuisance. China also started dissuading countries in South China Sea by

Malabar series of exercises( Image credits- Indian Navy)

it's aggressive postures. They also started  venturing into the Indian Ocean. These actions has a direct bearing on India's security and has forced it to increase it's defence cooperation wit Countries like the United States, Japan, Australia and Vietnam. Adding to the mix is the increasing Russian belligerence and it's ever growing proximity to China and Pakistan. What is emerging is a Russia- Pakistan-China axis that will seriously affect India's security. A recent statement by a senior Russian minister that Russia is in talks to sell advanced weapon systems like the SU-35 to Pakistan is not seen well by India. What perplexed Russian watchers is the fact that they seem to be sacrificing an important ally like India for a friendship with a failed state like Pakistan that cannot in anyway match India. Russia seems to have misread India and is not aware of the fact that there will come a time soon when the threshold will be breached and India will seriously consider about it's relations with Russia. India will not loss anything as India has other avenues, but Russia seriously needs powerful friends like India which they are doing their best to antagonize. 

The way forward 

There is  new power game emerging in Asia. India sits in the very centre of the new power game and will act as the balancing force. With an ever unreliable Russia, India has started getting close to the United States and key allies like Japan and Australia. The Malabar series of naval exercises which started as an annual engagement between the Indian and the American navies has grown in complexity down the years. For the year 2015, Japan will join the exercises which sends a clear picture to China that there is  a limit beyond which they cannot push around the countries around it. It also sends out the message that the combine of the United States along with India, Japan and Australia along with Vietnam will band together sometime in the future in an alliance if the threat perception becomes too great. What the countries should realize is the fact that India has the resources and the will to get the job done at any cost. That includes protecting it's vast and ever increasing economic activity most importantly in South China sea where in India has oil exploration agreement with Vietnam which China has threatened. India has made it very clear that it will take any steps necessary to protect it's vital national interest, come what may be the cost. Even now, India keeps all it's options open and does not talk about an open alliance with the other like minded countries. But in all probability, such scenario will change if China becomes too aggressive. The security and the geopolitical situation in Asia- Pacific is still lucid.  Only time will tell how things will unfold, an answer that only time can give. But what will emerge is a new order in which India will play a pevitol part . That is how the security situation is emerging in Asia.