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| Indian and Japanese Prime Ministers ( Image credits- Narendra Modi Official) |
After about two months, I am back with a new blog. My job had kept me busy. But in the last two months, the world especially Asia has changed forever. The greatest story to happen in recent years has been the Chinese rise. China has become the factory of the worldmaking anything from mobile to a bicycle. China is the key pillar of the global economy. Until 2010, China's rise was considered to be peaceful. But China decided to stop playing nice. China started it's aggressive policy of expansion starting off with it's nine-dash line in the South China Sea based on some obscure historic claim. It also started claiming territory belonging to it's neighbours extending from India to Vietnam to Japan. China also initiated it's One Belt and Road Initiative that seeks to develop infrastructure and rebuild the ancient Silk Route through land and sea connecting Asia with Africa and Europe. But China's aggressive posture has left many regional powers confused and threatened.
The United States which is the only power capable of countering China is in relative withdrawal. Hence the powers of the region including India, Japan and Australia who by themselves cannot take on China have started an informal discussion for cooperation among themselves ostensibly to check China.
The Importance of South China Sea
The South China Sea is pivotal to international trade as the majority of commodities passes through the region. If China gets the control of South China Sea, she can suffocate regional economies with the blockade. Such a move cannot be accepted at any cost.
Indo-Pacific Region
To effectively counter China, the big weights of the region including India, Australia, Japan and USA has started an informal dialogue. Kown as the Asian Quid, such an initiative was started in 2007 resulting in the Malabar Exercises of 2007 but quickly feel out of favour as China warned Delhi and Canberra not to gang up on China. India and Australia didn't want to antagonize China. They hoped that an appeasement policy will work with China. But their hopes were dashed. They were proved wrong by the subsequent actions of China. China started it's ever expansion. For India, China's ever-growing closeness to Pakistan was a matter of grave concern. China also started the initiative of OBOR that passed through Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), a territory that is claimed by India. India protested but to no avail. China also started an aggressive land reclamation in the South China Sea and also laid claim to the East China Sea on Islands that is controlled by Japan. All these have laid the seed of apprehension against China in the minds of the nations in the vicinity.
At the same time, America which now understands it's influence diminishing in the region has initiated the quad of democracies. The Asia Pacific has now been relabeled as Indo-Pacific acknowledging the importance of India as a strategic ally and one of the key powers capable of containing China. But yet again, India was not convinced. But then China took the unprecedented step of starting construction on the Chinese-Bhutan border. Bhutan which could not by itself take on China sought India's help and thus the two-month Doklam standoff took place. This has convinced India that Chian cannot be relied upon and it is in her best interest to build mutually productive relationship with like-minded powers in the region.,,
The Asian Quadrilateral
From such a perception was born the Asian Quadrilateral. The Quadrilateral is the grouping of four democracies including India, Japan, USA and Australia which seeks the establishment of free and fair trade and an international order based on mutual self-respect and principles of International law. The quad in itself is in initial stages but has the potential to grow and act as a counterweight to China. Now the ball is in China's court which can take steps to cool off the situation or else it will find itself facing an alliance which has the potential to counter and contain China.
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